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Last Updated: September 7, 2018
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The United States exported 7.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products in the first half of 2018, when exports of crude oil and hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) set record monthly highs. Crude oil surpassed HGLs to become the largest U.S. petroleum export, with 1.8 million b/d of exports in the first half of 2018. U.S. exports of crude oil, HGLs, and motor gasoline grew in the first half of 2018 compared with the same period in 2017, while distillate exports decreased 84,000 b/d (Figure 1).

Figure 1. U.S. petroleum exports (first half 2017 vs. first half2018


U.S. crude oil exports increased by 787,000 b/d (almost 80%) from the first half of 2017 to the first half of 2018 and set a new monthly record of at 2.2 million b/d in June. Destinations in Asia and Oceania were the largest recipients of U.S. crude oil exports in the first half of 2018, and U.S. crude oil exports to China more than doubled—increasing by 193,000 b/d—from the first half of 2017. U.S. crude oil exports to South Korea and India also increased significantly during this period, up 81,000 b/d and 72,000 b/d, respectively.

Europe was the second-largest market for U.S. crude oil exports, receiving 555,000 b/d in the first half of 2018. U.S. crude oil export volumes to Europe are more equally distributed than in other regions. Italy, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, each received more than 120,000 b/d in the first half of 2018. Canada was the only major U.S. crude oil export destination where exports decreased somewhat, down 13,000 b/d in the first half of 2018 compared with the same period in 2017 (Figure 2).

Figure 2. First-half 2018 U.S. crude oil export destinations


HGLs were the second-largest petroleum export from the United States in the first half of 2018 at 1.6 million b/d. Destinations in Asia and Oceania were also the primary recipients of U.S. HGLs at 618,000 b/d in the first half of 2018. The region’s main importers were Japan, South Korea, China, and India, many of which have expanded petrochemical facilities that import U.S. HGLs as a feedstock. The second-largest regional destinations for U.S. HGL exports in the first half of 2018 were Canada and Mexico in North America, which received a combined 453,000 b/d in the first half of 2018 (Figure 3). U.S. HGL exports also set a new monthly record in the first half of 2018 at 1.7 million b/d in May 2018.

Figure 3. First-half 2018 U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids export destinations


In the first half of 2018, the United States exported 1.3 million b/d of distillate, primarily to destinations in Central and South America, with Brazil and Chile as the two largest destinations, receiving 131,000 b/d and 114,000 b/d, respectively. The decline in U.S. distillate exports in the first half of 2018 compared with the first half of 2017 is mostly the result of lower exports to a number of destinations in Central and South America and in Europe. However, U.S. distillate exports are typically higher in summer months, most of which occur in the second half of the year. The largest single destination for U.S. distillate exports in the first half of 2018 was Mexico at 289,000 b/d (Figure 4). Despite being the third-largest U.S. petroleum export, U.S. distillate exports go to the largest number of destinations—as 49 different destinations received at least 1,000 b/d in the first half of 2018.

Figure 4. First-half 2018 U.S. distillate export destinations


The United States exported 913,000 b/d of motor gasoline in the first half of 2018, an increase of 144,000 b/d compared with the same period in 2017. Mexico accounted for more than half of U.S. motor gasoline exports in the first half of 2018, the largest single-destination concentration for any U.S. petroleum export (Figure 5). Years of under investment in Mexico’s refineries, combined with a mismatch between the type of crude oil produced locally and the type of crude oil Mexico’s refineries were designed to process, has resulted in low refinery utilization rates. Low refinery utilization has resulted in increased imports of motor gasoline and other petroleum products, from the United States. Mexico’s gasoline consumption ranges from 780,000 b/d to 800,000 b/d based on recent history. In the first half of 2018, U.S. gasoline exports to Mexico accounted for more than 60% of the gasoline consumed in Mexico.


Figure 5. First-half 2018 U.S. total motor gasoline export destinations


U.S. average regular gasoline price decreases, diesel price increases

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price decreased less than 1 cent from last week to $2.82 per gallon on September 3, 2018, up 15 cents from the same time last year. West Coast prices increased nearly two cents to $3.33 per gallon, and East Coast and Rocky Mountain prices each rose over one cent to $2.78 per gallon and $3.01 per gallon, respectively. Midwest prices fell nearly three cents to $2.73 per gallon and Gulf Coast prices decreased two cents to $2.55 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price increased over 2 cents from last week to $3.25 per gallon on September 3, 2018, 49 cents higher than a year ago. Midwest prices increased nearly four cents to $3.19 per gallon, Gulf Coast prices rose over three cents to $3.04 per gallon, West Coast prices increased more than two cents to $3.74 per gallon, and East Coast prices increased over one cent to $3.24 per gallon. Rocky Mountain prices were unchanged, remaining at $3.36 per gallon.

Propane/propylene inventories rise

U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased by 2.0 million barrels last week to 73.4 million barrels as of August 31, 2018, 9.7 million barrels (11.7%) lower than the five-year (2013-2017) average inventory level for this same time of year. Midwest, Gulf Coast, and East Coast inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels, 0.5 million barrels, and 0.3 million barrels, respectively, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories fell slightly, remaining virtually unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 3.9% of total propane/propylene inventories.

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BP & The Expansion of the Caspian

The vast Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan’s portion of the South Caspian Sea marked several milestones in 2018. It has now produced a cumulative total of 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas since the field started up in 2006, with daily output reaching a new peak, growing by 12.5% y-o-y. At a cost of US$28 billion, Shah Deniz – with its estimated 1.2 trillion cubic metres of gas resources – has proven to be an unparalleled success, being a founding link of Europe’s Southern Gas Corridor and coming in relatively on budget and on time. And now BP, along with its partners, is hoping to replicate that success with an ambitious exploration schedule over the next two years.

Four new exploration wells in three blocks, along with a seismic survey of a fourth, are planned for 2019 and an additional three wells in 2020. The aggressive programme is aimed at confirming a long-held belief by BP and SOCAR there are more significant pockets of gas swirling around the area. The first exploratory well is targeting the Shafag-Asiman block, where initial seismic surveys suggest natural gas reserves of some 500 billion cubic metres; if confirmed, that would make it the second-largest gas field ever discovered in the Caspian, behind only Shah Deniz. BP also suspects that Shah Deniz itself could be bigger than expected – the company has long predicted the existence of a second, deeper reservoir below the existing field, and a ‘further assessment’ is planned for 2020 to get to the bottom of the case, so to speak.

Two wells are planned to be drilled in the Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula (SWAP) block, some 30km southeast of Baku, where BP operates in equal partnership with SOCAR, with an additional well planned for 2020. The goal at SWAP is light crude oil, as is a seismic survey in the deepwater Caspian Sea Block D230 where a ‘significant amount’ of oil is expected. Exploration in the onshore Gobustan block, an inland field 50km north of Baku, rounds up BP’s upstream programme and the company expects that at least one seven wells of these will yield a bonanza that will take Azerbaijan’s reserves well into the middle of the century.

Developments in the Caspian are key, as it is the starting node of the Southern Gas Corridor – meant to deliver gas to Europe. Shah Deniz gas currently makes its way to Turkey via the South Caucasus Gas pipeline and exports onwards to Europe should begin when the US$8.5 billion, 32 bcm/y Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) starts service in 2020. Planned output from Azerbaijan currently only fills half of the TANAP capacity, meaning there is room for plenty more gas, if BP can find it. From Turkey, Azeri gas will link up to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline in Greece and connect into Turkey, potentially joined by other pipelines projects that are planned to link up with gas production in Israel. This alternate source of natural gas for Europe is crucial, particularly since political will to push through the Nordstream-2 pipeline connecting Russian gas to Germany is slackening. The demand is there and so is the infrastructure. And now BP will be spending the next two years trying to prove that the supply exists underneath Azerbaijan.

BP’s upcoming planned exploration in the Caspian:

  • Shafag-Asiman, late 2019, targeting natural gas
  • SWAP, 3 sites, late 2019/2020, targeting oil
  • ‘Onshore gas project’, end 2019, targeting natural gas’
  • Block D230, 2019 (seismic assessment)/2020 (drilling), targeting oil
  • Shah Deniz ‘further assessment’, 2020, targeting natural gas
January, 22 2019
RAPID Rises

When it was first announced in 2012, there was scepticism about whether or not Petronas’ RAPID refinery in Johor was destined for reality or cancellation. It came at a time when the refining industry saw multiple ambitious, sometimes unpractical, projects announced. At that point, Petronas – though one of the most respected state oil firms – was still seen as more of an upstream player internationally. Its downstream forays were largely confined to its home base Malaysia and specialty chemicals, as well as a surprising venture into South African through Engen. Its refineries, too, were relatively small. So the announcement that Petronas was planning essentially, its own Jamnagar, promoted some pessimism. Could it succeed?

It has. The RAPID refinery – part of a larger plan to turn the Pengerang district in southern Johor into an oil refining and storage hub capitalising on linkages with Singapore – received its first cargo of crude oil for testing in September 2018. Mechanical completion was achieved on November 29 and all critical units have begun commissioning ahead of the expected firing up of RAPID’s 300 kb/d CDU later this month. A second cargo of 2 million barrels of Saudi crude arrived at RAPID last week. It seems like it’s all systems go for RAPID. But it wasn’t always so clear cut. Financing difficulties – and the 2015 crude oil price crash – put the US$27 billion project on shaky ground for a while, and it was only when Saudi Aramco swooped in to purchase a US$7 billion stake in the project that it started coalescing. Petronas had been courting Aramco since the start of the project, mainly as a crude provider, but having the Saudi giant on board was the final step towards FID. It guaranteed a stable supply of crude for Petronas; and for Aramco, RAPID gave it a foothold in a major global refining hub area as part of its strategy to expand downstream.

But RAPID will be entering into a market quite different than when it was first announced. In 2012, demand for fuel products was concentrated on light distillates; in 2019, that focus has changed. Impending new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations are requiring shippers to switch from burning cheap (and dirty) fuel oil to using cleaner middle distillate gasoils. This plays well into complex refineries like RAPID, specialising in cracking heavy and medium Arabian crude into valuable products. But the issue is that Asia and the rest of the world is currently swamped with gasoline. A whole host of new Asian refineries – the latest being the 200 kb/d Nghi Son in Vietnam – have contributed to growing volumes of gasoline with no home in Asia. Gasoline refining margins in Singapore have taken a hit, falling into negative territory for the first time in seven years. Adding RAPID to the equation places more pressure on gasoline margins, even though margins for middle distillates are still very healthy. And with three other large Asian refinery projects scheduled to come online in 2019 – one in Brunei and two in China – that glut will only grow.

The safety valve for RAPID (and indeed the other refineries due this year) is that they have been planned with deep petrochemicals integration, using naphtha produced from the refinery portion. RAPID itself is planned to have capacity of 3 million tpa of ethylene, propylene and other olefins – still a lucrative market that justifies the mega-investment. But it will be at least two years before RAPID’s petrochemicals portion will be ready to start up, and when it does, it’ll face the same set of challenging circumstances as refineries like Hengli’s 400 kb/d Dalian Changxing plant also bring online their petchem operations. But that is a problem for the future and for now, RAPID is first out of the gate into reality. It won’t be entering in a bonanza fuels market as predicted in 2012, but there is still space in the market for RAPID – and a few other like in – at least for now.

 

RAPID Refinery Factsheet:

  • Ownership: Petronas (50%), Saudi Aramco (50%)
  • Capacity: 300 kb/d CDU/3 mtpa olefins plant
  • Other facilities: 1.22 Gigawatt congeneration plant, 3.5 mtpa regasification terminal
  • Expected commissioning: March 2019
January, 21 2019
Forecasting Bangladesh Tyre Market | Zulker Naeen

Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.

The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.

The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.

The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.

In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.

However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.

Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.

Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.

This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.

It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.

January, 18 2019