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Last Updated: January 25, 2019
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Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 21 January 2019 – Brent: US$62/b; WTI: US$53/b

  • Oil prices continue to edge up, as the market took cues from a large pullback in US drilling activity – a sign that US crude output growth might slow in the near term – although demand continues to be a concern, with the US-China trade talks at a stalemate
  • The truce between the US and China is now more than halfway through the 90-day period, and there has been no sign of concrete progress ahead of the March 1, 2019 deadline – when tariffs on US$200 billion on Chinese imports kick in
  • With the Chinese economy growing at its slowest pace in 28 years, a trade deal is likely, but fundamental differences with America could scupper a deal, leading to a further slowdown in the global economy, with recession a growing possibility
  • The OPEC+ supply cut continues to support the market, with Russia and Saudi Arabia signalling that they are on track with their production cut targets
  • While the US is now signalling that no new waivers will be granted to buyers of Iranian crude in May, market analysts believe that waivers will be renewed, but at a lower volume or to a lower number of countries
  • The US is also considering harsher sanctions on Venezuela, in response to what it is calling an illegitimate election by President Nicolas Maduro, which could further reduce Venezuela’s already declining crude exports
  • With Iran and Venezuela, oil supply on the OPEC+ side will see a downward trend in 2019, but the EIA expects US production to rise to a 12.9 mmb/d by 2020, with production for 2019 averaging at 12.07 mmb/d
  • However, American drillers may have been put off by the recent weakening of prices – exacerbated by insufficient inland pipeline infrastructure – with the active rig count losing 21 oil rigs and 4 gas rigs for a net loss of 25 rigs
  • Crude price outlook: Competing bullish/bearish factors will keep crude oil prices in their current range, as worries about the health of energy demand keep a lid on prices. Brent should range in US$61-63/b, and WTI trading at US$52-54/b


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • BP and Eni have signed a new Heads of Agreement with Oman, aimed at developing Block 77 in central Oman, a project that is considered ‘significant’
  • CNOOC has started production at the Huizhou 32-5/Huizhou 33-1 integrated development in the eastern South China Sea, with projected output of 19,200 b/d in 2020 aimed to arresting China’s upstream output decline
  • Petrobras announced that its total production of oil and gas in 2018 was 2.63 mmboe/d, including NGLs, with 96.2% of output located in Brazil
  • Pemex has received a fast-track approval from the Mexican government for the US$1 billion development of the shallow-water Esah field
  • Undeterred by previous lukewarm response, Indonesia is offering up five blocks – including two former production areas – in early 2019
  • Angola is launching its first licensing round in eight years this June, focusing on marginal fields that will open up new exploration areas
  • Shell has appointed a new Upstream Director, with Wael Sawan taking over from Andy Brown from July 1, 2019

Downstream

  • Russia has expanded its list of oil refineries eligible for a newly introduced excise tax relief, as a sweetener after nine of the sites agreed to invest US$4.5 billion to upgrade capacity and fuels quality by 2026
  • China has granted the country’s first crude oil import licence to a private trader, with Zhejiang Wuchan Zhongda Petroleum’s approval seen as a step in opening up its crude market and support the new Shanghai crude futures contract
  • Algeria’s Sonatrach expected to conclude the formation of its trading joint venture with ExxonMobil within the first half of 2019
  • BP and Korean petrochemical firm Lotte have agreed to a major expansion at the joint Lotte BP Chemical Company site in Ulsan, adding 100,000 tpa of acetic acid and 200,000 tpa of vinyal acetate monomer capacity by 2020
  • Europe’s largest refinery – the 404 kb/d Pernis site in Rotterdam – will close for two months for major maintenance work
  • Curacao’s search for a new operator for its 335 kb/d Isla refinery – rumoured to be handed to Motiva – has been suspended pending a corruption investigation
  • Sinopec has been given approval by the Chinese government to launch an IPO for its fuels retail unit, with listing set for Hong Kong this year
  • South Africa and Saudi Arabia have signed a cooperation agreement focusing on US$10 billion in oil and gas projects, including a new refinery and usage of oil storage facilities near Cape Town as a strategic location for trading

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Russia’s Novatek is looking to building two new LNG storage tanks at Saibu Gas’ storage facility in the Japanese island of Kyushu, which would allow it greater flexibility to deliver Arctic LNG to China and South Korea
  • Equinor, with Petoro, ExxonMobil and Total, have announced a new discovery in the Norwegian Sea, with the Ragnfrid North (6406/2-9 S) exploration well estimated to hold 6-25 mmboe of gas and condensate
  • Talks to build an underwater natural gas pipeline between Israel and Egypt are progressing, transferring gas from the Leviathan and Tamar fields to Egyptian LNG processing facilities to create a new energy export hub
  • Shell is looking at starting work on a new natural gas/condensate prospect in Australia’s Northern Browse Basin, eyeing a future tie-back to its Prelude FLNG unit that just began production in December

Oil Oil and Gas News Oil and Gas Industry LNG Oil and Gas Companies News Weekly Update Market Watch Market Trends Latest Oil and Gas Trends
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SRE KATEEL INDUSTRIES

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+91 9845669129 , +91 9901 889129

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ABOUT

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C.K. Palya Road, Off Bannergatta Main Road

Bengaluru - 560 083. INDIA.

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Values

Storage System

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+91 9845669129 , +91 9901 889129

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[email protected]

© Copyright 2017-18 SRE KATEEL INDUSTRIES. All Rights Reserved.

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