Founded in 1944 in El Dorado, Arkansas, Murphy Oil isn’t quite an international major but the American oil company managed to boost itself up the ranks of the world’s independent oil companies to become a successful player. Part of this has comes from Murphy Oil’s decision to branch out overseas in the 1990s, venturing east to strike oil and gas in the states of Sarawak and Sabah in 1999.
Last week, Murphy Oil announced that it would be selling its stakes in both its Malaysian subsidiaries – covering five upstream projects including Sabah K, SK309 & SK311, Sabah H, SK314A and SK405B – to Thailand’s PTTEP for US$2.13 billion. Effectively ending the era for Murphy Oil in Malaysia. It is the largest M&A deal in Southeast Asian upstream in over five years, and could be an indication of an upcoming trend for the region’s players in general.
For Murphy Oil, the sale is a philosophical change. Of the company’s proven reserves of 816 million boe in 2018, some 16% - or 129 million boe – are in Malaysia. Murphy Oil’s Malaysian fields produced over 48,000 boe/d over the same period, which is a large volume to lose particularly for one that is publicly-traded in the NYSE. But it makes sense. Malaysia was Murphy’s only bright spot internationally. Its forays into other developing markets like Australia, Brunei, Vietnam, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea and Spain have not been as successful. On its home turf, the shale revolution is re-invigorating and re-inventing American upstream. High-yielding and low-cost, it has presented Murphy Oil with a question – why spend money on riskier overseas projects when there is so much potential available at home? This PTTEP deal is Murphy’s answer; and the money raised will be used to pay down debt, buy back shares and (crucially) fund new deals and acquisitions in the US. This won’t just be focused on shale – although Eagle Ford has been named as a focus area – but also more traditional assets in the Gulf of Mexico.
Market chatter suggests that Murphy Oil will be selling off most of its non-Western Hemisphere assets. So while Murphy Oil prepares to go back home, the sale kicks off what could be a major year of M&A in Southeast Asia. When rumours of the sale emerged last year, it was Repsol that was thought to be the preferred buyer – fresh from its massive gas find in Indonesia. Together with Eni, Repsol has been one of the more aggressive European players expanding in Asia – galvanised by declining assets elsewhere. Meanwhile, players who have the capability to swing into the shale oil patch – Chevron, for example – are slowly refocusing there, possibly to the risk of putting eggs into a single basket. And regional players – like PTTEP – are looking to make inroads. That PTTEP won the sale is interesting. Like many Asian state-linked oil firms, PTTEP suffers from a maturing portfolio and needs to find new fields to plumb. Its Thai fields are declining and new discoveries aren’t keeping pace to keep the numbers up. Having ventured into Australia, Indonesia, Myanmar and even Africa, PTTEP’s relevance as an upstream player depends on making strategic acquisitions like this. And Murphy Oil’s Malaysian assets are valuable. Murphy Oil will receive up to US$100 million as a bonus payout if certain exploration projects are completed and sold results before October 2020. Also, Murphy Oil had a close relationship with Petronas; with PTTEP, there may be more opportunities for both state firms to collaborate on other regional assets.
This recalibration will continue. As players capable to focusing on shale divest out of Southeast Asia, there will be plenty other eager players to take their place. Attractive assets always draw interest, whether it is in the Permian Basin or in the South China Sea.
Murphy Oil Malaysian Assets and Projects:
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In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global demand for petroleum liquids will be greater than global supply in 2021, especially during the first quarter, leading to inventory draws. As a result, EIA expects the price of Brent crude oil to increase from its December 2020 average of $50 per barrel (b) to an average of $56/b in the first quarter of 2021. The Brent price is then expected to average between $51/b and $54/b on a quarterly basis through 2022.
EIA expects that growth in crude oil production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) will be limited because of a multilateral agreement to limit production. Saudi Arabia announced that it would voluntarily cut production by an additional 1.0 million b/d during February and March. Even with this cut, EIA expects OPEC to produce more oil than it did last year, forecasting that crude oil production from OPEC will average 27.2 million b/d in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020.
EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production in the Lower 48 states—excluding the Gulf of Mexico—will decline in the first quarter of 2021 before increasing through the end of 2022. In 2021, EIA expects crude oil production in this region will average 8.9 million b/d and total U.S. crude oil production will average 11.1 million b/d, which is less than 2020 production.
EIA expects that responses to the recent rise in COVID-19 cases will continue to limit global oil demand in the first half of 2021. Based on global macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics, however, EIA forecasts that global gross domestic product will grow by 5.4% in 2021 and by 4.3% in 2022, leading to energy consumption growth. EIA forecasts that global consumption of liquid fuels will average 97.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021 and 101.1 million b/d in 2022, only slightly less than the 2019 average of 101.2 million b/d.
EIA expects global inventory draws will contribute to forecast rising crude oil prices in the first quarter of 2021. Despite rising forecast crude oil prices in early 2021, EIA expects upward price pressure will be limited through the forecast period because of high global oil inventory, surplus crude oil production capacity, and stock draws decreasing after the first quarter of 2021. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $53/b in both 2021 and 2022.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
You can find more information on EIA’s expectations for changes in global petroleum liquids production, consumption, and crude oil prices in EIA’s latest This Week in Petroleum article and its January STEO.
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