It has been almost five years since the giant Khafji field shared between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait was shut down. Ostensibly on environmental concerns, this precipitated a halt of all activities in the so-called Neutral Zone – a colonial-era border relic that holds a significant amount of oil and gas. After years of stop-start negotiations, reports are now suggesting that the OPEC allies are close to a breakthrough on the matter, which could return up to 500,000 b/d of oil to the market at a crucial time for the global oil supply/demand balance.
Left undefined by the Uqair Convention of 1922 that otherwise established concrete borders for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the dry piece of land that is 8 times the size of Singapore was mostly ignored until 1938, when the Burgan oil field was discovered within Kuwait’s borders. A race for exploration began, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait both awarding overlapping concessions to private companies and Getty Oil finally striking oil in 1948. The Wafra field was discovered in 1953, and in 1960, Japan’s Arabian Oil Company (which held an offshore concession awarded by Saudi Arabia in 1957 and another awarded by Kuwait in 1958) discovered the giant Khafji offshore field. Overlapping claims of sovereignty did not prevent exploitation of the resources, but opaque rights eventually led to a formal partition in 1970 where it was agreed that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would split production equally under a joint operating agreement. The unique status of the Neutral Zone is exemplified by its structure – its largest onshore oil field (Wafra) is operated by Chevron, the only remaining place in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait where a major asset is held by an international firm.
And it was this arrangement that caused the current quandary. Chevron inherited the Neutral Zone assets through its merger with Texaco in 2001, which itself bought Getty Oil in 1984. In 2009, Saudi Arabia renewed Chevron’s concession for Wafra independently, angering Kuwait as the negotiations were performing without its consultation. Kuwait responded by attempting to evict Chevron from its offices in the Neutral Zone, claiming that the land was planned for the giant Ras al Zour refinery. More tit-for-tat moves escalated and eventually Saudi Arabia shut down Khafji in October 2014 and the entire Neutral Zone in May 2015, removing 500,000 b/d of crude oil from the market in one fell swoop.
That may be coming back now, with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih stating that he hopes to reach a deal to resume production by the end of this year. It’ll be a boon not only to both countries, but also Chevron, which was in the midst of a full-field steam flood injection EOR project to boost production of heavy oil when the shutdown hit. Given that much time has elapsed, restoration of full production will take a while. If it does happen, however, those additional volumes could complicate mathematics as OPEC faces a scenario of managing global oil supply through its supply deal to account for lost volumes from Iran, Venezuela and Libya, but also surging American shale production. With total production capacity at a maximum of 600,000 b/d, Neutral Zone output is not small drop in the barrel.
But there is more than just restarting fields at stake. While Khafji and Wafra both have a long life left ahead of them (Wafra is estimated to have 4.9 billion recoverable barrels), the Neutral Zone also contains the offshore Dorra field – a politically-sensitive gas field shared with Iran. Plans to exploit Dorra have been shelved since 2013, but Dorra gas is badly needed to power domestic electricity demand in both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. A restart will help in that matter, certainly in the long term. And it is the long term that is underpinning the renewed negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, even if the short-term impact might be negative on global oil fundamentals.
About the Saudi - Kuwait Neutral Zone:
Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today
The UK has just designated the Persian Gulf as a level 3 risk for its ships – the highest level possible threat for British vessel traffic – as the confrontation between Iran with the US and its allies escalated. The strategically-important bit of water - and in particular the narrow Strait of Hormuz – is boiling over, and it seems as if full-blown military confrontation is inevitable.
The risk assessment comes as the British warship HMS Montrose had to escort the BP oil tanker British Heritage out of the Persian Gulf into the Indian Ocean from being blocked by Iranian vessels. The risk is particularly acute as Iran is spoiling for a fight after the Royal Marines seized the Iranian crude supertanker Grace-1 in Gibraltar on suspicions that it was violating sanctions by sending crude to war-torn Syria. Tensions over the Gibraltar seizure kept the British Heritage tanker in ‘safe’ Saudi Arabian waters for almost a week after making a U-turn from the Basrah oil terminal in Iraq on fears of Iranian reprisals, until the HMW Montrose came to its rescue. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps have warned of further ‘reciprocation’ even as it denied the British Heritage incident ever occurred.
This is just the latest in a series of events around Iran that is rattling the oil world. Since the waivers on exports of Iranian crude by the USA expired in early May, there were four sabotage attacks on oil tankers in the region and two additional attacks in June, all near the major bunkering hub of Fujairah. Increased US military presence resulted in Iran downing an American drone, which almost led to a full-blown conflict were it not for a last-minute U-turn by President Donald Trump. Reports suggest that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps have moved military equipment to its southern coast surrounding the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which is 39km at its narrowest. Up to a third of all seaborne petroleum trade passes through this chokepoint and while Iran would most likely overrun by US-led forces eventually if war breaks out, it could cause a major amount of damage in a little amount of time.
The risk has already driven up oil prices. While a risk premium has already been applied to current oil prices, some analysts are suggesting that further major spikes in crude oil prices could be incoming if Iran manages to close the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time. While international crude oil stocks will buffer any short-term impediment, if the Strait is closed for more than two weeks, crude oil prices could jump above US$100/b. If the Strait is closed for an extended period of time – and if the world has run down on its spare crude capacity – then prices could jump as high as US$325/b, according to a study conducted by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre in Riyadh. This hasn’t happened yet, but the impact is already being felt beyond crude prices: insurance premiums for ships sailing to and fro the Persian Gulf rose tenfold in June, while the insurance-advice group Joint War Committee has designated the waters as a ‘Listed Area’, the highest risk classification on the scale. VLCC rates for trips in the Persian Gulf have also slipped, with traders cagey about sending ships into the potential conflict zone.
This will continue, as there is no end-game in sight for the Iranian issue. With the USA vague on what its eventual goals are and Iran in an aggressive mood at perceived injustice, the situation could explode in war or stay on steady heat for a longer while. Either way, this will have a major impact on the global crude markets. The boiling point has not been reached yet, but the waters of the Strait of Hormuz are certainly simmering.
The Strait of Hormuz:
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 8 July 2019 – Brent: US$64/b; WTI: US$57/b
Headlines of the week
Utility-scale battery storage units (units of one megawatt (MW) or greater power capacity) are a newer electric power resource, and their use has been growing in recent years. Operating utility-scale battery storage power capacity has more than quadrupled from the end of 2014 (214 MW) through March 2019 (899 MW). Assuming currently planned additions are completed and no current operating capacity is retired, utility-scale battery storage power capacity could exceed 2,500 MW by 2023.
EIA's Annual Electric Generator Report (Form EIA-860) collects data on the status of existing utility-scale battery storage units in the United States, along with proposed utility-scale battery storage projects scheduled for initial commercial operation within the next five years. The monthly version of this survey, the Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (Form EIA-860M), collects the updated status of any projects scheduled to come online within the next 12 months.
Growth in utility-scale battery installations is the result of supportive state-level energy storage policies and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Order 841 that directs power system operators to allow utility-scale battery systems to engage in their wholesale energy, capacity, and ancillary services markets. In addition, pairing utility-scale battery storage with intermittent renewable resources, such as wind and solar, has become increasingly competitive compared with traditional generation options.
The two largest operating utility-scale battery storage sites in the United States as of March 2019 provide 40 MW of power capacity each: the Golden Valley Electric Association’s battery energy storage system in Alaska and the Vista Energy storage system in California. In the United States, 16 operating battery storage sites have an installed power capacity of 20 MW or greater. Of the 899 MW of installed operating battery storage reported by states as of March 2019, California, Illinois, and Texas account for a little less than half of that storage capacity.
In the first quarter of 2019, 60 MW of utility-scale battery storage power capacity came online, and an additional 108 MW of installed capacity will likely become operational by the end of the year. Of these planned 2019 installations, the largest is the Top Gun Energy Storage facility in California with 30 MW of installed capacity.
As of March 2019, the total utility-scale battery storage power capacity planned to come online through 2023 is 1,623 MW. If these planned facilities come online as scheduled, total U.S. utility-scale battery storage power capacity would nearly triple by the end of 2023. Additional capacity beyond what has already been reported may also be added as future operational dates approach.
Of all planned battery storage projects reported on Form EIA-860M, the largest two sites account for 725 MW and are planned to start commercial operation in 2021. The largest of these planned sites is the Manatee Solar Energy Center in Parrish, Florida. With a capacity of 409 MW, this project will be the largest solar-powered battery system in the world and will store energy from a nearby Florida Power and Light solar plant in Manatee County.
The second-largest planned utility-scale battery storage facility is the Helix Ravenswood facility located in Queens, New York. The site is planned to be developed in three stages and will have a total capacity of 316 MW.