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Last Updated: November 1, 2019
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Market Watch  

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 28 October 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$55/b

  • After progressively gaining over the last week, crude oil prices took a breather at the start of the week, with prices remaining rangebound as traders look for more concrete signs that a full trade deal between the US and China is imminent
  • A surprise 1.7 million barrel drawdown in US crude stocks – as reported by the Department of Energy – supported higher prices previously, but this effect has petered out over this week
  • Despite the initial ‘partial trade deal’ heralded by both China and the US, pessimism still reigns over a comprehensive deal with both China and US officials warning that the stickiest points of the negotiations remain at a stalemate until Chinese demands that existing tariffs are rolled back are met
  • Meanwhile, more warning signs that global oil demand was waning came from India, where crude purchases and refinery run rates have plunged as its economy decelerates; in China, the manufacturing index dropped for its sixth consecutive month in October
  • Red is the colour of the US active rig count, as the Baker Hughes survey of operational rigs dropped by a huge 21 sites – 17 oil and 4 gas – bringing the total number down to 830, or down 238 y-o-y
  • There isn’t much room for crude prices to grow in the current environment; indeed, prices are likely to trade with a downward bias at US$58-60/b for Brent and US$53-55/bd for WTI

Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Shell has exited the Khazar field and the Kalamkas-Sea projects in Kazakhstan’s prolific Kashagan area in the Caspian Sea, citing ‘stubbornly high costs’ linked to a high level of toxic hydrogen-sulfide gas; the Kazakh government is reportedly looking for new investors to develop the projects
  • Chevron has won a 90-day extension to its waiver on operating in Venezuelan upstream from the Trump White House, ensuring it will remain operating in the country for the immediate future
  • First shipments of Norway’s new Johan Sverdrup crude have begun making its way to Asia, possibly crowding out similar medium low-sulfur grades from Africa and South America as refiners brace for new IMO fuel rules
  • Ecopetrol has taken a 30% stake in the Gato do Mato offshore discovery in Brazil’s Santos basin from Shell, which reduces its participation in the pre-salt field to 50% alongside Total’s existing 20%
  • Lukoil and the government of Equatorial Guinea have signed an MoU for the Russian giant to begin participating in the African nation’s E&P sector
  • Waldorf Production Limited, a newly-formed upstream company focusing on the North Sea, has acquired Endeavour Energy UK Limited for an undisclosed sum, including oil and gas assets worth US$550 million
  • Eni’s streak of luck in Egypt continues, as its Sidri 36 well in the Gulf of Suez hit oil flows of about 5,000 b/d, forming part of the larger Sidri South discovery

Midstream/Downstream

  • India has relaxed rules for setting up fuel station networks in the country, paving the way for non-energy companies and oil majors to set up distribution networks in the rapidly-growing market
  • China’s Hengli Petrochemical is first private refiner in the country approved to supply jet fuel domestically, having recently started up its new 400 kb/d refinery
  • Egypt’s Qalaa Holdings is planning to raise the capacity of its Egyptian Refining Co site to 127 kb/d from the current 97 kb/d in 2021
  • Marathon Petroleum is reportedly looking to sell two of its American refineries – the 68 kb/d Kenai site in Alaska and the 58.5 kb/d Salt Lake City site in Utah – following a ‘comprehensive strategic review’
  • Russia state development bank VEB will be collaborating with the government of Morocco to develop a 100 kb/d, US$2.2 billion refinery in northern Morocco; the country’s sole refinery, Samir, has been shut since 2015 over unpaid taxes

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Saudi Aramco has partnered with Bangladesh’s ACWA Power to build an LNG-based power plant and terminal in either Cox’s Bazar or the port of Payra, continuing Aramco’s new-found interest in developing LNG capabilities
  • CNOOC has announced a major natural gas discovery in the South China Sea’s deepwater Qiongdongnan basin that could contain up to 100 bcm of gas
  • Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment has purchased a stake in NextDecade Corp, which is currently developing the 27 million tpa Rio Grande LNG export project in Brownsville, Texas
  • Eni has started gas and condensate production at the Obiafu 41 discovery in Nigeria, just 3 weeks after completing the well, using the harvested gas to generate electricity at its nearby Okpai power plant
  • PTTEP is planning to replace its gas pipeline in Myanmar to will lead to a more reliable supply of natural gas from the Zawtika field to Yangon

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Pricing-in The Covid 19 Vaccine

In a few days, the bi-annual OPEC meeting will take place on November 30, leading into a wider OPEC+ meeting on December 30. This is what all the political jostling and negotiations currently taking place is leading up to, as the coalition of major oil producers under the OPEC+ banner decide on the next step of its historic and ambitious supply control plan. Designed to prop up global oil prices by managing supply, a postponement of the next phase in the supply deal is widely expected. But there are many cracks appearing beneath the headline.

A quick recap. After Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a price war in March 2020 that led to a collapse in oil prices (with US crude prices briefly falling into negative territory due to the technical quirk), OPEC and its non-OPEC allies (known collectively as OPEC+) agreed to a massive supply quota deal that would throttle their production for 2 years. The initial figure was 10 mmb/d, until Mexico’s reticence brought that down to 9.7 mmb/d. This was due to fall to 7.7 mmb/d by July 2020, but soft demand forced a delay, while Saudi Arabia led the charge to ensure full compliance from laggards, which included Iraq, Nigeria and (unusually) the UAE. The next tranche will bring the supply control ceiling down to 5.7 mmb/d. But given that Covid-19 is still raging globally (despite promising vaccine results), this might be too much too soon. Yes, prices have recovered, but at US$40/b crude, this is still not sufficient to cover the oil-dependent budgets of many OPEC+ nations. So a delay is very likely.

But for how long? The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee panel has suggested that the next step of the plan (which will effectively boost global supply by 2 mmb/d) be postponed by 3-6 months. This move, if adopted, will have been presaged by several public statements by OPEC+ leaders, including a pointed comment from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo that producers must be ready to respond to ‘shifts in market fundamentals’.

On the surface, this is a necessary move. Crude prices have rallied recently – to as high as US$45/b – on positive news of Covid-19 vaccines. Treatments from Pfizer, Moderna and the Oxford University/AstraZeneca have touted 90%+ effectiveness in various forms, with countries such as the US, Germany and the UK ordering billions of doses and setting the stage for mass vaccinations beginning December. Life returning to a semblance of normality would lift demand, particularly in key products such as gasoline (as driving rates increase) and jet fuel (allowing a crippled aviation sector to return to life). Underpinning the rally is the understanding that OPEC+ will always act in the market’s favour, carefully supporting the price recovery. But there are already grouses among OPEC members that they are doing ‘too much’. Led by Saudi Arabia, the draconian dictates of meeting full compliance to previous quotas have ruffled feathers, although most members have reluctantly attempt to abide by them. But there is a wider existential issue that OPEC+ is merely allowing its rivals to resuscitate and leapfrog them once again; the US active oil rig count by Baker Hughes has reversed a chronic decline trend, as WTI prices are at levels above breakeven for US shale.

Complaints from Iran, Iraq and Nigeria are to be expected, as is from Libya as it seeks continued exemption from quotas due to the legacy of civil war even though it has recently returned to almost full production following a truce. But grievance is also coming from an unexpected quarter: the UAE. A major supporter in the Saudi Arabia faction of OPEC, reports suggest that the UAE (led by the largest emirate, Abu Dhabi) are privately questioning the benefit of remaining in OPEC. Beset by shrivelling oil revenue, the Emiratis have been grumbling about the fairness of their allocated quota as they seek to rebuild their trade-dependent economy. There has been suggestion that the Emiratis could even leave OPEC if decisions led to a net negative outcome for them. Unlike the Qatar exit, this will not just be a blow to OPEC as a whole, questioning its market relevance but to Saudi Arabia’s lead position, as it loses one of its main allies, reducing its negotiation power. And if the UAE leaves, Kuwait could follow, which would leave the Saudis even more isolated.

This could be a tactic to increase the volume of the UAE’s voice in OPEC+, which has been dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia. But it could also be a genuine policy shift. Either way, it throws even more conundrums onto a delicate situation that could undermine an already fragile market. Despite the positive market news led by Covid-19 vaccines and demand recovery in Asia, American crude oil inventories in Cushing are now approaching similar high levels last seen in April (just before the WTI crash) while OPEC itself has lowered its global demand forecast for 2020 by 300,000 b/d. That’s dangerous territory to be treading in, especially if members of the OPEC+ club are threatening to exit and undermine the pack. A postponement of the plan seems inevitable on December 1 at this point, but it is what lies beyond the immediate horizon that is the true threat to OPEC+.

Market Outlook:

  • Crude price trading range: Brent – US$44-46/b, WTI – US$42-44/b
  • More positive news on Covid-19 vaccines have underpinned a crude price rally despite worrying signs of continued soft demand and inventory build-ups
  • Pfizer’s application for emergency approval of its vaccine is paving the way for mass vaccinations to begin soon, with some experts predicting that the global economy could return to normality in Q2 2021
  • Market observers are predicting a delay in the OPEC+ supply quota schedule, but the longer timeline for the club’s plan – which is set to last until April 2022 – may have to be brought forward to appease current dissent in the group

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November, 25 2020
EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to remain relatively flat through 2021

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will remain near its current level through the end of 2021.

A record 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil was produced in the United States in November 2019 and was at 12.7 million b/d in March 2020, when the President declared a national emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak. Crude oil production then fell to 10.0 million b/d in May 2020, the lowest level since January 2018.

By August, the latest monthly data available in EIA’s series, production of crude oil had risen to 10.6 million b/d in the United States, and the U.S. benchmark price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil had increased from a monthly average of $17 per barrel (b) in April to $42/b in August. EIA forecasts that the WTI price will average $43/b in the first half of 2021, up from our forecast of $40/b during the second half of 2020.

The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.

The gradual recovery in global demand for petroleum contributes to EIA’s forecast of higher crude oil prices in 2021. EIA expects that the Brent crude oil price will increase from its 2020 average of $41/b to $47/b in 2021.

EIA’s crude oil price forecast depends on many factors, especially changes in global production of crude oil. As of early November, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) were considering plans to keep production at current levels, which could result in higher crude oil prices. OPEC+ had previously planned to ease production cuts in January 2021.

Other factors could result in lower-than-forecast prices, especially a slower recovery in global petroleum demand. As COVID-19 cases continue to increase, some parts of the United States are adding restrictions such as curfews and limitations on gatherings and some European countries are re-instituting lockdown measures.

EIA recently published a more detailed discussion of U.S. crude oil production in This Week in Petroleum.

November, 19 2020
OPEC members' net oil export revenue in 2020 expected to drop to lowest level since 2002

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will earn about $323 billion in net oil export revenues in 2020. If realized, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive this expected decrease in export revenues.

Crude oil prices have fallen as a result of lower global demand for petroleum products because of responses to COVID-19. Export volumes have also decreased under OPEC agreements limiting crude oil output that were made in response to low crude oil prices and record-high production disruptions in Libya, Iran, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela.

OPEC earned an estimated $595 billion in net oil export revenues in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2 trillion, which was earned in 2012. Continued declines in revenue in 2020 could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on revenues from oil sales to import goods, fund social programs, and support public services. EIA expects a decline in net oil export revenue for OPEC in 2020 because of continued voluntary curtailments and low crude oil prices.

The benchmark Brent crude oil spot price fell from an annual average of $71 per barrel (b) in 2018 to $64/b in 2019. EIA expects Brent to average $41/b in 2020, based on forecasts in EIA’s October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). OPEC petroleum production averaged 36.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and fell to 34.5 million b/d in 2019; EIA expects OPEC production to decline a further 3.9 million b/d to average 30.7 million b/d in 2020.

EIA based its OPEC revenues estimate on forecast petroleum liquids production—including crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids—and forecast values of OPEC petroleum consumption and crude oil prices.

EIA recently published a more detailed discussion of OPEC revenue in This Week in Petroleum.

November, 16 2020