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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revises the U.S. crude oil production forecast it publishes in each Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) based mainly on two factors: updates to EIA’s published historical data and EIA’s crude oil price forecast. In the November 2019 STEO, EIA increased its forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2019 by 30,000 barrels per day (b/d) (0.2%) from the October STEO. EIA increased its 2020 crude oil production forecast by 119,000 b/d (0.9%) compared with the October STEO (Figure 1). The increases in crude oil production forecast in the November STEO were primarily driven by
In the November STEO, EIA increased its U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecast by $2 per barrel (b) in November to $56/b and by $1/b in both December and January to $55/b and $54/b, respectively. The slight increase in crude oil prices also contributed to EIA’s increased production forecast for the first half of 2020 because of EIA’s assumption of a six-month lag between a crude oil price change and a production response.
In the November STEO, EIA now forecasts U.S. crude oil production will increase to 12.3 million b/d in 2019 from 11.0 million b/d in 2018. Production in the Permian region is the primary driver of EIA’s forecast crude oil production growth, and EIA forecasts Permian production will grow by 915,000 b/d in 2019 and by 809,000 b/d in 2020 (Figure 2). Increases in Permian production are supported by the crude oil pipeline infrastructure expansion seen earlier this year, which helped alleviate the transportation bottleneck and supported prices for WTI in Midland, Texas (the price producers may expect to receive in the Permian region), relative to prices for WTI-Cushing. The higher relative prices in the Permian should continue to encourage production in the region. EIA forecasts that the Bakken region will have the next largest crude oil production growth in 2019, and it is forecast to grow by 152,000 b/d in 2019 and 96,000 b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico will increase by 138,000 b/d in 2019 and 116,000 b/d in 2020.
Although EIA forecasts that overall U.S. crude oil production will increase, EIA expects the growth rate to decline from 11.8% in 2019 to 8.1% in 2020. One of the primary indicators of a slowdown in production growth is the decline in oil-directed rigs. According to Baker Hughes, active rig counts fell from 877 oil-directed rigs in the beginning of January 2019 to 674 rigs in mid-November. Rig counts in the Permian region also declined during this period, falling from 487 to 408 (Figure 3). Because EIA expects WTI-Cushing crude oil prices to stay below $55/b until August 2020, EIA anticipates that drilling rigs will continue to decline as producers cut back on their capital spending, resulting in notable slowing in the growth of domestic crude oil production over the next 14 months.
Although U.S. rig counts are declining, improvements in rig efficiency, which allows fewer rigs to drill the same number of wells, partially offset declining rig counts. In addition, higher initial production from wells (although not necessarily the total estimated ultimate recovery) is offsetting some of the slowdown in rigs.
U.S. average regular gasoline prices fall, diesel prices increase slightly
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail fell more than 2 cents from the previous week to $2.59 per gallon on November 18, 2 cents lower than the same time last year. The West Coast price fell by more than 5 cents to $3.54 per gallon, the Gulf Coast price fell by more than 4 cents to $2.22 per gallon, the East Coast price fell by more than 2 cents to $2.45 per gallon, and the Midwest price fell less than 1 cent, remaining at $2.44 per gallon. The Rocky Mountain price increased by nearly 2 cents to $2.84 per gallon.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price rose by less than 1 cent to remain at $3.07 per gallon on November 18, 21 cents lower than a year ago. The Rocky Mountain price increased by nearly 3 cents to 3.23 per gallon, and the East Coast price rose by less than 1 cent, remaining at $3.05 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price fell by less than 1 cent to $2.79 per gallon, and the West Coast and Midwest prices each decreased by less than 1 cent, remaining at $3.76 per gallon and $2.97 per gallon, respectively.
Propane/propylene inventories decline
U.S. propane/propylene stocks decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week to 94.2 million barrels as of November 15, 2019, 5.8 million barrels (6.6%) greater than the five-year (2014-18) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Gulf Coast and Midwest inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels and 1.5 million barrels, respectively. East Coast inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased slightly, remaining virtually unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.4% of total propane/propylene inventories.
Residential heating fuel prices
As of November 18, 2019, residential heating oil prices averaged almost $2.99 per gallon, more than 1 cent per gallon above last week’s price but 33 cents per gallon below last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged nearly $2.06 per gallon, almost 3 cents per gallon more than last week’s price but nearly 13 cents per gallon less than a year ago.
Residential propane prices averaged more than $1.99 per gallon, 5 cents per gallon higher than last week’s price but more than 43 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged nearly $0.85 per gallon, almost 9 cents per gallon higher than last week’s price but nearly 6 cents per gallon below last year’s price.
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The Global Small-Scale LNG Market is projected to grow from 30.8 MTPA in 2016 to 48.3 MTPA by 2022, at a CAGR of 6.7% between 2017 and 2022. The small-scale LNG market across the globe is driven by their increasing LNG demand from remote locations by applications, such as industrial & power, and the ability to transport LNG over long distances without the need for heavy investment such as pipelines. By terminal type, regasification terminal is expected to grow at a highest CAGR between 2017 and 2022. The increasing demand for LNG from the remote locations and global commoditization of LNG are some of the major factors that are driving the demand for small-scale LNG in this segment.
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The Linde Group (Germany), Wärtsilä (Finland), Honeywell International Inc. (U.S.), General Electric (U.S.), and Engie (France), among others are the leading companies operating in the small-scale LNG market. These companies are expected to account for significant shares of the small-scale LNG market in the near future.
Critical questions the report answers:
Growth Drivers are :
Energy cost advantage of LNG over alternate energy sources for end-users
Heavy duty transport companies save approximately 30% on fuel costs on LNG-fueled trucks, compared to diesel fueled trucks, and produce 30% lower emissions. Air pollution from diesel engines is one of the biggest concerns, especially in areas that struggle to meet air-quality standards. On the other hand, natural gas causes complete combustion and fewer emissions than diesel. It is estimated that increasing environmental concerns from the utilization of diesel vehicles is likely to increase the adoption of green fuel technologies such as natural gas. In the case of electric power generation, natural gas engines below 150 KW are more cost effective than oil fueled engines. Fuel cost is one of the major cost for road transportation, which is strongly subject to excise taxation. Typically, an LNG-fueled Volvo FM truck can travel up to 600 km with LNG. With an additional 150 litres of diesel, it can travel up to 1,000 km without refuelling. Thus, reducing the cost of travel. With additional LNG liquefaction capacity expected to come online in the next few years, an oversupply of LNG is expected, which will drive the price of LNG further lower. Considering all these factors, both developed and developing countries are undertaking feasibility studies to recognize the techno-economics of shifting their economies from diesel to natural gas. Therefore, the cheap price of small-scla LNG over others alterantive fuels will drive the growth during the forecast period.
Small-scale LNG terminals are regarded as facilities, including liquefaction and regasification terminals, with a capacity of less than 1 million tons per annum (MTPA) within the scope of this study. It includes the LNG produced from small-scale liquefaction terminals and regasified at small-scale regasification terminals for catering to applications such as LNG-fueled heavy-duty transport, LNG-fueled ships, and industrial & power generation.
North America small-scale LNG market is projected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
The North America small-scale LNG market is projected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period. In North America, most of the small-scale LNG demand in industrial & power applications is met through peak shaving facilities. The peak shaving facilities are used to meet adequate supply of LNG to address the peak demand. In 2015, there were more than 100 peak shaving facilities in the U.S., among which one-half of the peak shaving facilities were located in the Northeast, while a quarter of them were located in the Midwest. Currently, the U.S. has among the highest number of peak shaving plants. However, less than 10% of them are available for any other use due to the current electricity demand. The commissioning of small-scale liquefaction plants can expand the peak shaving capacities in the region.
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Major Market Developments:
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The report "Cryogenic Tanks Market by Raw Material (Steel, Nickel Alloy), Cryogenic Liquid (Liquid Nitrogen, LNG), Application (Storage, Transportation), End-use Industry (Metal Processing, Energy Generation, Electronics), and Region - Global Forecast to 2024" The global cryogenic tanks market size is projected to grow from USD 6.2 billion in 2019 and expected to reach USD 8.1 billion by 2024, at a CAGR of 5.5%.
Browse 121 market data Tables and 36 Figures spread through 147 Pages and in-depth TOC on "Cryogenic Tanks Market by Raw Material (Steel, Nickel Alloy), Cryogenic Liquid (Liquid Nitrogen, LNG), Application (Storage, Transportation), End-use Industry (Metal Processing, Energy Generation, Electronics), and Region - Global Forecast to 2024"
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The global industry for cryogenic tanks is driven primarily by the increasing demand for LNG. An increase in infrastructure spending, space applications for cryogenic technologies, and cryogenic energy storage systems represent promising growth opportunities for the market. Improving healthcare services in the developing economies is boosting the cryogenic tanks market.
The steel segment is estimated to lead the cryogenic tanks market, by raw material, during the forecast period.
Steel is primarily used in the manufacturing of cryogenic tanks. Most of the materials are ductile at room temperature and abruptly lose their ductility when a given threshold is exceeded. They then become brittle even at relatively low temperatures. The austenitic stainless steel is majorly used for working in the low-temperature range. Carbon and alloy grade steels used for low-temperature service are required to provide high strength, ductility, and toughness in vehicles, vessels, and structures that must be used at –49°F and lower. These factors are contributing to the growth in demand for steel for the manufacturing of cryogenic tanks.
Liquid Nitrogen is the fastest-growing cryogenic liquid segment of the cryogenic tanks market.
Liquid nitrogen is primarily used in metal processing, food & beverage, electronics, and healthcare industries. The steel manufacturing industry is one of the major consumers of nitrogen. Nitrogen is used in the food & beverage industry for food preservation and packaging applications. The use of liquid nitrogen in this industry enables cost savings during storage and transportation and improves food quality. Liquid nitrogen is used to cool normally soft or heat-sensitive materials, such as plastics, tires, and certain metals. The increasing demand for liquid nitrogen from metal processing, food, and medical industries is expected to drive the market in this segment.
Metal processing is expected to lead the end-use industry segment for cryogenic tanks market during the forecast period.
Metal-processing industry was the largest end-use industry for the cryogenic tanks industry. Cryogenic tanks are increasingly being used in the metal processing industry, especially steel the industry. Huge quantities of nitrogen and other industrial gases are used during the steel manufacturing process. Nitrogen is also known to be largest consumed gas in the industry. It is used as a high-pressure gas for laser cutting of steel and metal. The inert properties of nitrogen facilitates its use as a blanketing gas. Some gases, including hydrogen and oxygen, are also used in the metal processing industry. Cryogenic tanks are commonly used in the storage and transportation of these gases in manufacturing plants, which drives the market demand.
High economic growth rate and growing metal processing and energy generation industries in China, Australia, and India are projected to lead the cryogenic tanks market in APAC during the forecast period.
APAC is the fastest-growing market, in terms of both production and demand. Higher domestic demand, easy availability of raw materials, and low-cost labor make APAC the most preferred destination for the manufacturers of cryogenic tanks. The cryogenic tanks market in India, China, and Australia is expected to witness significant growth during the forecast period. The market is primarily driven by the demand from the energy & power sector. APAC is emerging as a leading consumer of cryogenic tanks, owing to the increasing demand from domestic as well as international markets.
The key players in cryogenic tanks market are Chart Industries (US), Cryofab (US), INOX India (India), Linde PLC (UK), Air Products (US), Cryolor (France), Air Water (Japan), Wessington Cryogenics (UK), FIBA Technologies (US), and ISISAN (Turkey). These players have established a strong foothold in the market by adopting strategies, such as expansion, new product launch, and merger & acquisition.
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September was the first month the United States recorded exporting more petroleum than it importedIn September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported, the first month this happened since monthly records began in 1973 (Figure 1).
Net petroleum trade is calculated as total imports of crude oil and petroleum products less total exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The United States currently imports more crude oil than it exports, but it exports more petroleum products than it imports (Figure 2). The balance of this petroleum trade activity has been changing during the past 10 years, from annual net petroleum imports of 9.6 million b/d in 2009 to annual net imports of 2.3 million b/d in 2018. Long-running changes in U.S. trading patterns for both crude oil and petroleum products have resulted in a steady decrease in overall U.S. net petroleum imports.
Increasing U.S. crude oil production, which rose from an average of 5.3 million b/d in 2009 to 12.1 million b/d in 2019 through September, has resulted in a decrease in U.S. crude oil imports from an average of 9.0 million b/d in 2009 to 7.0 million b/d through September 2019. The decrease in U.S. crude oil imports also corresponded with a decrease in the number of sources the United States imported crude oil from.
In December 2015, the United States lifted restrictions on exporting domestically produced crude oil. Since then, U.S. crude oil exports have been the largest contributor to U.S. petroleum export growth; U.S. crude oil exports have grown from 591,000 b/d in 2016 to 2.8 million b/d in 2019 through September. Despite increasing exports of crude oil, however, the United States remains a net importer of crude oil. The United States continues importing primarily heavy high-sulfur crude oils that most U.S. refineries are configured to process, and more than 60% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada and Mexico.
At the same time, U.S. refineries responded to increasing domestic and international demand for petroleum products (such as distillate fuel, motor gasoline, and jet fuel) by increasing throughput. Gross inputs into U.S. refineries rose from an annual average of 14.6 million b/d in 2009 to 17.0 million b/d through the third quarter 2019, and they have regularly set new monthly record highs.
The increase in refinery production of petroleum products has outpaced the increase in U.S. consumption, contributing to an increase in petroleum product exports. The United States has gone from net petroleum product imports of 698,000 b/d in 2009 to net petroleum product exports of 3.2 million b/d so far in 2019. In the first nine months of 2019, the United States exported 1.4 million b/d of distillate, 1.1 million b/d of propane, and 864,000 b/d of motor gasoline, the three largest petroleum product exports.
Although seasonal monthly import and export patterns may result in month-to-month back and forth changes between net imports and net exports for some products such as motor gasoline, the United States has been a net exporter of several products on an annual basis (Figure 3). The United States has been an annual net exporter of distillate and residual fuel since 2008, a net exporter of hydrocarbon gas liquids and jet fuel since 2011, and a net exporter of motor gasoline since 2016.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) had forecast that the United States would transition to net petroleum exports in September 2019. In the November STEO, EIA forecasts that U.S. net petroleum exports will continue to increase, averaging 751,000 b/d in 2020, the first time that the United States is expected to be a net petroleum exporter on an annual basis.
U.S. average regular gasoline price falls, diesel price increases
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell less than 1 cent from the previous week to remain at $2.58 per gallon on December 2, 12 cents higher than the same time last year. The West Coast price fell more than 6 cents to $3.41 per gallon, the Gulf Coast price fell more than 1 cent to $2.23 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price fell nearly 1 cent to $2.82 per gallon. The Midwest price increased by more than 2 cents to $2.42 per gallon, and East Coast price increased by nearly 2 cents to $2.48 per gallon.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price rose less than 1 cent, remaining at $3.07 per gallon on December 2, 14 cents lower than a year ago. The Midwest price rose by more than 1 cent to $2.98 per gallon, the East Coast price rose by nearly 1 cent to $3.06 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price rose by less than 1 cent to remain at $2.78 per gallon. The West Coast price fell by nearly 2 cents to $3.70 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price fell by nearly 1 cent to $3.24 per gallon.
Propane/propylene inventories decline
U.S. propane/propylene stocks decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week to 91.8 million barrels as of November 29, 2019, 4.1 million barrels (4.6%) greater than the five-year (2014-18) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Midwest, East Coast, and Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels, 0.7 million barrels, and 0.4 million barrels, respectively. Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.8% of total propane/propylene inventories.
Residential heating fuel prices increase
As of December 2, 2019, residential heating oil prices averaged nearly $3.01 per gallon, almost 2 cents per gallon above last week’s price but more than 19 cents per gallon below last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged almost $2.05 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon more than last week’s price and nearly 8 cents per gallon more than a year ago.
Residential propane prices averaged nearly $2.04 per gallon, almost 4 cents per gallon higher than last week’s price but more than 39 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged almost $0.91 per gallon, nearly 1 cent per gallon higher than last week’s price and more than 6 cents per gallon above last year’s price.