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Last Updated: December 27, 2019
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Market Watch   

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 23 December 2019 – Brent: US$66/b; WTI: US$60/b

  • Oil prices remain rangebound, as supply-side developments kept a lid on optimism that a phase 1 US-China trade deal could support oil demand
  • Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reported that they were near an agreement on their shared neutral zone, where crude production has been halted for at least four years due to territorial disputes; if output from this region returns, estimates suggest that it could bring as much as 500,000 b/d back to the market
  • This will be of use to Saudi Aramco, whose shares have slide after an initial week of euphoria, as investors locked in profits, moving to lock in additional supplies and secure critical downstream refining centres worldwide
  • Going into 2020, the US is looking to strengthen enforcement of its sanctions on Iran, targeting global shippers, Chinese state enterprises and exporters of metal to further ‘tighten the screws’ on Iranian crude exports
  • An attack, and subsequent crew kidnapping, of an oil tanker in West Africa’s Gulf of Guinea didn’t move the crude market much, but does highlight the growing incidence of piracy in the region
  • Expectations that US shale output will slow down in 2020 and beyond have been rebuffed by the new US Energy Secretary Dan Brouilette, who expects the slowdown to be temporary
  • The active US rig count rose ahead of Christmas, adding 18 oil rigs (but losing 4 gas rigs) for a net increase of 14, bringing the total count back above the 800 mark at 813 sites, or 267 fewer year-on-year
  • In the quiet period between Christmas and New Year, crude oil prices should remain rangebound, shifting within the following ranges: US$65-67/b for Brent and US$61-63/b for WTI


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Total is looking to acquire interests in two offshore licenses in Angola – Block 20/11 and Block 21/09, shared with Sonangol and BP – in line with its ambition to build a new crude production hub in the south central African Kwanza Basin
  • Devon Energy has sold its assets in the US Barnett shale area – including 320,000 acres and 4,200 producing wells – to BKV Oil & Gas Capital Partners for US$770 million, the latter’s first acquisition in Barnett
  • Eni is returning to Albanian upstream, signing a production sharing contract with the government to explore the onshore Dumre block
  • Canadian-based Touchstone Exploration reports that it has made a ‘significant’ onshore oil discovery in Trinidad and Tobago, with the Cascadura-1ST1 well in the Ortoire block yield flows ‘beating expectations’
  • Fiji has awarded two onshore exploration acreage on its main island of Viti Levu to private player Akura, which could yield the Pacific island’s first crude

Midstream/Downstream

  • Chinese refineries processed some 13.65 mmb/d of crude oil in November, up 10.1% y-o-y to the second-highest level on record, bolstered by 3 new mega refineries and increase teapot output that is also causing a fuels supply glut
  • Reliance and BP will be moving ahead with their fuel retail partnership, which aims to increase Reliance’s Indian network from 1,400 stations and 30 aviation fuel sites to 5,500 stations and 45 aviation fuel sites by 2025
  • Sinopec has completed the central CDU unit of its Al-Zour refinery project in Kuwait, with an eventual total of 615 kb/d capacity processing Kuwaiti crude that will also be the largest clean fuel refinery in the Middle East
  • Petrobras’ attempts to sell four of its Brazilian refineries has attracted a number of international bids, with Sinopec and US-based EIG Energy Partners delivering bids for the 150 kb/d REGAP site in Minas state
  • Saudi Aramco has acquired 17% of Korean oil refinery Hyundai Oilbank for US$1.2 billion, a critical node in Aramco’s global downstream portfolio
  • Mexico has deferred a rule requiring Pemex to produce and sell ultra-low-sulfur diesel domestically for five years to 2024, with Pemex citing severe infrastructure and technical limitations to supply the clean fuel
  • Chevron will be returning to the downstream retail market in Australia, purchasing the fuel retail arm of Puma Energy for some US$288 million, which includes 270 retail stations, 20 depots and 3 bulk sea terminals

Natural Gas/LNG

  • After speeding ahead rapidly, an Israeli court has placed the brakes on the Leviathan natural gas project, issuing a temporary injunction on all operations on grounds of pollution endangering public health
  • PetroChina has offered a spot LNG cargo on the cheap – submitted for a Pakistan tender – a sign that China may have overstocked ahead of a warmer winter, and indicative of the current global LNG supply glut
  • The US has conceded defeat on its bid to prevent the Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline from being completed, saying it has ‘little leverage’; US sanctions have caused a delay in the project, but German officials report that the natural gas pipeline should be completed in 2H 2020
  • BP reported success in its three-well drilling campaign in Mauritania and Senegal, with the GTA-1, Yakaar-2 and Orca-1 wells yielding high-quality reservoirs of natural gas

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ABOUT

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C.K. Palya Road, Off Bannergatta Main Road

Bengaluru - 560 083. INDIA.

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Values

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+91 9845669129 , +91 9901 889129

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