NrgEdge Editor

Sharing content and articles for users
Last Updated: January 24, 2020
1 view
Business Trends
image

In the January 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, a 9% increase from 2019 production levels, and 13.7 million b/d in 2021, a 3% increase from 2020. Slowing crude oil production growth results from a decline in drilling rigs during the past year that EIA expects will continue through most of 2020. Despite the decline in rigs, EIA forecasts production will continue to grow as rig efficiency and well-level productivity rise, offsetting the decline in the number of rigs until drilling activity accelerates in 2021.

Figure 1. U.S. crude oil production

EIA’s U.S. crude oil production forecast is based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price forecast in the January 2020 STEO, which rises from an average of $57 per barrel (b) in 2019 to an average of $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021. The price forecast is highly uncertain, and any significant divergence of actual prices from the projected price path could change the pace of drilling and new well completion, which would in turn affect production.

Crude oil production in the Lower 48 states has a relatively short investment and production cycle. Changes in Lower 48 crude oil production typically follow changes in crude oil prices and rig counts with about a four- to six-month lag. Because EIA forecasts WTI prices will decline during the first half of 2020 but begin increasing in the second half of the year and into 2021, forecast U.S. crude oil production grows slowly month over month until the end of 2020. In contrast, crude oil production in Alaska and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is driven by long-term investment that is typically less sensitive to short-term price movements.

In 2019, Lower 48 production reached its largest annual average volume of 9.9 million b/d, and EIA expects it to increase further by an average of 1.0 million b/d in 2020 and 0.4 million b/d in 2021. EIA forecasts the GOM region will grow by 0.1 million b/d in 2020 to 2.0 million b/d and to remain relatively flat in 2021 because several projects expected to come online in 2021 will not start producing until late in the year and will be offset by declines from other producing fields. Alaska’s crude oil production will remain relatively unchanged at about 0.5 million b/d in 2020 and in 2021.

The Permian region remains the most prolific growth region in the United States. Favorable geology combined with technological improvements have contributed to the Permian region’s high returns on investment and years of remaining oil production growth potential. EIA forecasts that Permian production will average 5.2 million b/d in 2020, an increase of 0.8 million b/d from 2019 production levels. For 2021, the Permian will produce an average of 5.6 million b/d. EIA forecasts that the Bakken region in North Dakota will be the second-largest growth area in 2020 and 2021, growing by about 0.1 million b/d in each year (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Monthly U.S. crude oil production by region

EIA expects crude oil prices higher than $60/b in 2021 will contribute to rising crude oil production because producers will be able to fund drilling programs through cash flow and other funding sources, despite a somewhat more restrictive capital market. Financial statements of 46 publically-traded U.S. oil producers reveal that these companies generated sufficient cash from operating activities to fund investment and grow production with WTI prices in the $55/b–$60/b range. The 46 selected companies produced more than 30% of total U.S. liquids production in the third quarter of 2019. The four-quarter moving average free cash flow for these companies ranged between $1.7 billion and $3.5 billion from the fourth quarter of 2017 through the second quarter of 2019. The third quarter of 2019—the latest quarter for which data are available—had less cash from operations than investing activities, but this figure was skewed by the large, one-time acquisition cost of Anadarko Petroleum by Occidental, valued at $55 billion (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Cash flow statement items for 46 U.S. oil producers

Results for these 46 publicly traded companies do not represent all U.S. oil producers because private companies that do not publish financial statements are not included in EIA’s analysis. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey sheds some light on the financial position of a broader set of companies. Released quarterly, the bank’s survey asks oil companies about business activity and employment and asks a few special questions that change each quarter. The number of companies that participate varies each quarter, but generally the survey includes about 100 exploration and production companies. In the most recent survey (from the fourth quarter of 2019), 75% of survey respondents said they can cover their capital expenditures through cash flow from operations at a WTI price of less than $60/b. In addition, 40% of survey respondents plan to increase capital expenditures in 2020 compared with 2019, while 24% of respondents expect to spend about the same (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Selected questions from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Energy Survey

Since about 2017, large, globally integrated oil companies have acquired more acreage in Lower 48 regions, particularly in the Permian. These companies have announced investment plans to make Lower 48 production an increasing portion of their portfolios. These companies can typically fund their investment programs through cash flow from operations and are generally less susceptible to tighter capital markets than smaller oil companies. The financial results of the public companies shown in Figure 3 and the Federal Reserve survey support EIA’s production forecast and suggest that U.S. crude oil production can continue to grow under EIA’s price forecast for 2020 and 2021 because many companies are less dependent on debt or equity to fund investment.

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices decline

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell more than 3 cents from the previous week to $2.54 per gallon on January 20, 29 cents higher than the same time last year. The Midwest price fell over 5 cents to $2.39 per gallon, the Gulf Coast price fell nearly 5 cents to $2.23 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain price fell more than 3 cents to $2.57 per gallon, the East Coast price fell more than 2 cents to $2.50 per gallon, and the West Coast price fell nearly 2 cents to $3.18 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell nearly 3 cents from the previous week to $3.04 per gallon on January 20, 7 cents higher than a year ago. The Rocky Mountain price fell nearly 6 cents to $3.01 per gallon, the East Coast price fell nearly 4 cents to $3.08 per gallon, the Midwest price declined almost 3 cents to $2.94 per gallon, the West Coast price fell nearly 2 cents to $3.57 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price dropped more than 1 cent to $2.80 per gallon.

Propane/propylene inventories decline

U.S. propane/propylene stocks decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week to 86.5 million barrels as of January 17, 2020, 17.1 million barrels (24.6%) greater than the five-year (2015-19) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Midwest, East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels, 0.4 million barrels, 0.2 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 6.9% of total propane/propylene inventories.

Residential heating fuel prices decrease

As of January 20, 2020, residential heating oil prices averaged nearly $3.07 per gallon, 3 cents per gallon below last week’s price and 10 cents per gallon lower than last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged almost $1.96 per gallon, more than 7 cents per gallon below last week’s price and more than 7 cents per gallon lower than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged almost $2.01 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon below last week’s price and more than 42 cents per gallon less than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged more than $0.60 per gallon, nearly 4 cents per gallon lower than last week’s price and 20 cents per gallon below last year’s price.

crude oil oil petroleum production supply STEO United States EIA
3
3 1

Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today

Latest NrgBuzz

Our Team Can Write Your Paper

Every college student knows how daunting some college assignments may be. Therefore, most of them are searching for time-tested and appreciated essay writing services that can offer quality, safe and affordable assistance. 

Are you the one who is looking for the platform that will “do my essay for me cheap and fast?” Do not waste your time browsing the web, but rather focus on the WritePaperForMe page. 

The overwhelming majority of college students claim the service to be reliable and efficient. Quality and authenticity of the accomplished assignments, timeliness of the submission, the safety of the personal information and affordability of provided services are the core values of the team. 

Therefore, if you are still searching for an answer to the “who can write my essay for me cheap” question, you should give WritePaperForMe a try. Talk to the staff, providing them with the details of your order. Instead of asking, “Do my paper for me fast and cheap”, you should be more precise, specifying your requirements. 

As one of the students mentioned, “the team of professionals do not only write my paper but also take maximum care of my safety and success”. 

December, 09 2021
floating fish feed production equipment for sale

floating fish feed pellet machine is widely used for produce high-grade aquatic feed pellets for fish, catfish, tilapia,shrimp,crab,lobsters,etc.Food for fishes requires contains rich crude protein, but the crude protein in the food is hard to digest for the fish.Fish feed pellet mill is specially designed to solve such problems. After being extruding processed by the machine, the feed can be easy to digest. Moreover, the user can change extrusion degree to influence floating time,it also can produce both floating and sinking type fish feed pellet .Fish food making machine with advanced single screw extruder,doesn’t need steam boiler.Floating fish feed pellet mill is used to produce floating fish feeds at home or for small scale fish farms with low cost investment.It ensures the new investors affordable to the machine,it is the best choice for aquaculture farms ,small and medium fish feed processing plants .

The floating fish feed pellet machine production equipment operated well without any preconditioning of the feed material other than grinding. This allows the fish food making machine to accept a dry, free flowing material, therefore simplifying the preparation equipment.The fish feed pellet machine can produce human foods, animal feeds and adhesives made from cereal grains. it can impart cooks that destroy undesired enzymes, such as urease, lipase and myroxinase. These extruder machine transform cereal,grain,oilseeds into porous collects that dissolve extract very efficiently. The outlet of fish feed pellet mill equipped with a firmly mounted mold, so it can produce different size and shape feed pellet .Moreover, one fish feed pellet machine is equipped with extra easy wear parts for free including two sleeves, one screw, one cutting knife and three die moulds.

December, 01 2021
animal feed pellet mill for sale,animal feed pellet machine making poultry feed

Animal feed pellet mill is mainly used for small-scale production of animal and poultry feed pellets, it’s popular in grain feed factory, farm, poultry farm,small size feed plant.The raw materials are easy to obtain in most place, like corn, maize, wheat bran, rice, beans,cassava,grass ,stalk etc. Driven by electric motor makes it more energy-saving and environmental friendly,,it can be used for diesel drive for the electric power shortage area.The animal feed pellet market is growing fast with recent years,feed pellet mill machine becomes more and more popular in breeding industry. Featured with the unique advantages of competitive price, low consumption,simple structure and small area coverage,it is an ideal pelleting machine for small-scale industrial production and home use.That’s why more and more families and plants choosing them to produce the feed pellets.

Features of livestock feed pellet making machine

● Cheap price
The feed pellets are expensive and can cost you much money. you will not have to buy the pellets from the shop with this machine.Due to their different model with different prices, you can select one that will match your budget.
● Multifunction
The good thing about this machine is that it caters for both small and large farmers. It will help you develop high quality feeds that will improve the growth of your livestock. The machine is great because you will get the feeds without much effort. It will perform most of the tasks for you.
● Small size
Cattle feed equipment is small and light in weight to allow you to transfer it to your place of choice.With the pig feed pellet machine, you will perform all the tasks by yourself.
● Easy to operate
This feed pellet making machine adopted high precision gear driven,advanced flexible coupling to get high production efficiency .Once you purchase this equipment, you will easily come up with quality feed pellets without any skills,it’s not necessary to hiring a professional worker to operate it for you.

December, 01 2021