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Last Updated: January 24, 2020
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In the January 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, a 9% increase from 2019 production levels, and 13.7 million b/d in 2021, a 3% increase from 2020. Slowing crude oil production growth results from a decline in drilling rigs during the past year that EIA expects will continue through most of 2020. Despite the decline in rigs, EIA forecasts production will continue to grow as rig efficiency and well-level productivity rise, offsetting the decline in the number of rigs until drilling activity accelerates in 2021.

Figure 1. U.S. crude oil production

EIA’s U.S. crude oil production forecast is based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price forecast in the January 2020 STEO, which rises from an average of $57 per barrel (b) in 2019 to an average of $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021. The price forecast is highly uncertain, and any significant divergence of actual prices from the projected price path could change the pace of drilling and new well completion, which would in turn affect production.

Crude oil production in the Lower 48 states has a relatively short investment and production cycle. Changes in Lower 48 crude oil production typically follow changes in crude oil prices and rig counts with about a four- to six-month lag. Because EIA forecasts WTI prices will decline during the first half of 2020 but begin increasing in the second half of the year and into 2021, forecast U.S. crude oil production grows slowly month over month until the end of 2020. In contrast, crude oil production in Alaska and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is driven by long-term investment that is typically less sensitive to short-term price movements.

In 2019, Lower 48 production reached its largest annual average volume of 9.9 million b/d, and EIA expects it to increase further by an average of 1.0 million b/d in 2020 and 0.4 million b/d in 2021. EIA forecasts the GOM region will grow by 0.1 million b/d in 2020 to 2.0 million b/d and to remain relatively flat in 2021 because several projects expected to come online in 2021 will not start producing until late in the year and will be offset by declines from other producing fields. Alaska’s crude oil production will remain relatively unchanged at about 0.5 million b/d in 2020 and in 2021.

The Permian region remains the most prolific growth region in the United States. Favorable geology combined with technological improvements have contributed to the Permian region’s high returns on investment and years of remaining oil production growth potential. EIA forecasts that Permian production will average 5.2 million b/d in 2020, an increase of 0.8 million b/d from 2019 production levels. For 2021, the Permian will produce an average of 5.6 million b/d. EIA forecasts that the Bakken region in North Dakota will be the second-largest growth area in 2020 and 2021, growing by about 0.1 million b/d in each year (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Monthly U.S. crude oil production by region

EIA expects crude oil prices higher than $60/b in 2021 will contribute to rising crude oil production because producers will be able to fund drilling programs through cash flow and other funding sources, despite a somewhat more restrictive capital market. Financial statements of 46 publically-traded U.S. oil producers reveal that these companies generated sufficient cash from operating activities to fund investment and grow production with WTI prices in the $55/b–$60/b range. The 46 selected companies produced more than 30% of total U.S. liquids production in the third quarter of 2019. The four-quarter moving average free cash flow for these companies ranged between $1.7 billion and $3.5 billion from the fourth quarter of 2017 through the second quarter of 2019. The third quarter of 2019—the latest quarter for which data are available—had less cash from operations than investing activities, but this figure was skewed by the large, one-time acquisition cost of Anadarko Petroleum by Occidental, valued at $55 billion (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Cash flow statement items for 46 U.S. oil producers

Results for these 46 publicly traded companies do not represent all U.S. oil producers because private companies that do not publish financial statements are not included in EIA’s analysis. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey sheds some light on the financial position of a broader set of companies. Released quarterly, the bank’s survey asks oil companies about business activity and employment and asks a few special questions that change each quarter. The number of companies that participate varies each quarter, but generally the survey includes about 100 exploration and production companies. In the most recent survey (from the fourth quarter of 2019), 75% of survey respondents said they can cover their capital expenditures through cash flow from operations at a WTI price of less than $60/b. In addition, 40% of survey respondents plan to increase capital expenditures in 2020 compared with 2019, while 24% of respondents expect to spend about the same (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Selected questions from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Energy Survey

Since about 2017, large, globally integrated oil companies have acquired more acreage in Lower 48 regions, particularly in the Permian. These companies have announced investment plans to make Lower 48 production an increasing portion of their portfolios. These companies can typically fund their investment programs through cash flow from operations and are generally less susceptible to tighter capital markets than smaller oil companies. The financial results of the public companies shown in Figure 3 and the Federal Reserve survey support EIA’s production forecast and suggest that U.S. crude oil production can continue to grow under EIA’s price forecast for 2020 and 2021 because many companies are less dependent on debt or equity to fund investment.

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices decline

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell more than 3 cents from the previous week to $2.54 per gallon on January 20, 29 cents higher than the same time last year. The Midwest price fell over 5 cents to $2.39 per gallon, the Gulf Coast price fell nearly 5 cents to $2.23 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain price fell more than 3 cents to $2.57 per gallon, the East Coast price fell more than 2 cents to $2.50 per gallon, and the West Coast price fell nearly 2 cents to $3.18 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell nearly 3 cents from the previous week to $3.04 per gallon on January 20, 7 cents higher than a year ago. The Rocky Mountain price fell nearly 6 cents to $3.01 per gallon, the East Coast price fell nearly 4 cents to $3.08 per gallon, the Midwest price declined almost 3 cents to $2.94 per gallon, the West Coast price fell nearly 2 cents to $3.57 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price dropped more than 1 cent to $2.80 per gallon.

Propane/propylene inventories decline

U.S. propane/propylene stocks decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week to 86.5 million barrels as of January 17, 2020, 17.1 million barrels (24.6%) greater than the five-year (2015-19) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Midwest, East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels, 0.4 million barrels, 0.2 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 6.9% of total propane/propylene inventories.

Residential heating fuel prices decrease

As of January 20, 2020, residential heating oil prices averaged nearly $3.07 per gallon, 3 cents per gallon below last week’s price and 10 cents per gallon lower than last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged almost $1.96 per gallon, more than 7 cents per gallon below last week’s price and more than 7 cents per gallon lower than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged almost $2.01 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon below last week’s price and more than 42 cents per gallon less than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged more than $0.60 per gallon, nearly 4 cents per gallon lower than last week’s price and 20 cents per gallon below last year’s price.

crude oil oil petroleum production supply STEO United States EIA
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Making use of commercial timber pellet mill

Today we  will certainly  discuss industrial  timber pellet mill  Most of us know that  contemporary society  promotes the recycling of resources, especially waste wood, sawdust, straw,  and so on. The  timber that  might not be  utilized before can be  refined into sawdust after  squashing  and also processing., sawdust  as well as other raw materials,  advertise the recycling of waste wood,  as well as facilitate our lives.

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Around us, waste wood, branches, waste wood scraps, bark, branches, waste boards, veneers,  furnishings factory scraps,  assorted wood, etc can be  grated into sawdust,  and also biomass pellet fuel is  generated through the industrial  timber pellet mill The finished product has high  burning efficiency and little harm to the  atmosphere, which can be  claimed to kill two birds with one  rock.

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Seven Tips for Online Learning During COVID-19

It is no secret that the COVID-19 epidemic has forced us all to make significant changes in our lives. Remote work has been an option for businesses; K-12 schools have adopted distance learning as a necessity; many college students, who were previously enrolled in on-campus courses, now have to learn online.

While online learning carries many positive benefits that make it the preferred choice for millions of students, it doesn't come without its challenges--especially for students who are more familiar with in-person courses.

Here are seven tips from Jonathan Small (associate vice president for online learning at Regis College), that will help you to adapt your study habits to fully online learning.

Tips for Online Classes1. Take the time to plan ahead and understand when your assignment is due.

Online students interact with the subject matter and complete assignments via learning management software (LMS). Regis offers online classes through Moodle. Other popular tools include Canvas and Blackboard.

It doesn't matter what LMS you use, it is important that you take the time to familiarize yourself with the interface as well as your assignments. Take a look at the due dates for your assignments so you can create a realistic plan to complete them.

Small says that online classes are often structured in modular formats, which is different from face-to-face classes. You don't always have the physical reminder that your work is due in class. Online classes can be very busy, so students must organize their time.

2. Make sure you have enough time to study.

Many students at Regis and other universities pursue their education while also fulfilling other obligations. You have to balance work, childcare, family obligations, and internships.

Small says, "Chunking tasks is a great way for students to feel accomplished." You feel like you are making progress. You can also schedule a time to study, which will help you establish and maintain a routine.

3. Regular communication is essential for group projects.

Many college courses include group projects and assignments that you must compete with others in the class. This is true for both online and in-person courses. Small says that while in-person courses allow for group projects and bring people together face to face, online students must be careful about communicating effectively.

Groups must prioritize communication, regardless of whether it's via Zoom, email or phone call, instant messaging, shared documents, or any other form altogether.

Small says, "Find a system which works for everyone in your group and then follow up often."

4. Split up work groups early.

It is important that groups are able to properly divide tasks so that everyone has a fair share and everyone knows exactly what they have to do.

Small advises that group projects should be planned far in advance so that everyone can share the work and coordinate their efforts. This way, even if something isn’t due for a few more weeks, everyone has the opportunity to use their time and work on their tasks as they can.

5. Keep in touch with your professor frequently.

As important as it is to communicate with your classmates and group members, it's equally important that you communicate with your instructor or professor. Whether you need help with an assignment, or simply want to share your struggles with them, make the effort to contact your professor.

Small says that talking to your instructor is key to success. Small says that you don't have to struggle with your questions and concerns alone. The professor can help. Talking to your instructor for five minutes can help you save days of stress. You will feel better, get more clarity, and be more successful.

You don't have to communicate only when things are going wrong. You can build a rapport with your instructor by letting them know when things are going well.

6. Participate as often as you can

Participation is key to your success, no matter if you are taking classes online or in person. Active participation not only shows your professor you are engaged but also shows you are learning and willing to do the work required to succeed. Participation transforms education from a passive process to one that is active.

Small says that the more you take part as a student the better your experience will be.

7. Flexibility is key.

Flexibility is key to online learning, both for you and your fellow students--and even your professors.

Small says, "Remember that your instructors had only to switch to remote teaching within a weekend. That's the same time it took to transition to online learning."

"This happened by accident. It's possible to restore the campus community by simply being compassionate, active in your course material, and talking to your instructors. This will make the transition smoother.

Put in the Work

Online learning might not be your first choice. However, the tips and advice above will help you make the most of your online courses. Clear and open communication with your classmates and instructors, as well as staying focused on the course material, will be key to your success in this difficult time.

Related article from studentjob.co.uk : http://www.studentjob.co.uk/blog/5757-best-online-exam-help-top-five-websites-you-can-trust 

Related Resources:

Are Online Classes Worth It? 12 Pros & Cons Of Online Learning

Tips to Be Successful in Your Online Classes In 2022

5 Reasons Why Online Learning is the Future of Education

The Impact of Online Classes on Students


August, 02 2022
What is a Satire Essay and How Does It Work?

One of the most popular literary devices or genres is Satire. This genre is especially designed to criticize someone or group of people for their vices, wrongdoings, or shortcomings.


Usually, humor is used to highlight important political and cultural issues in a society. A satire article is a type essay that uses humor, sarcasm, and irony to ridicule a person, situation, or ideology. It pokes fun in an elite and sarcastic fashion at certain people or situations.


How to Write Satire Essays: Writing Tips

How do you write a satire article? It doesn't have to be difficult, even though it seems daunting. However, once you use the following tips, it can be an easy task to write a satire article.


Choose a relevant and original topic

This is why you will need to create a satire essay. Your first step is to pick a satirical essay topic. You may be assigned a topic by your professor or teacher in some instances, but you would need to create your topic.


Decide the topic of your essay. Depending on what you are interested in, you can choose to concentrate on either a political or societal situation.


However, it's a good idea to choose a topic you are already familiar with. This will make it easier to locate facts and evidence to support the views you hold.


Consider your audience

Your essay is the center of attention. You must consider your audience at every stage of the writing process. Your essay should be addressed to college professors or high school students.


Are professionals reading it or are you just a student? It is important to consider your audience and determine the right tone for your essay.


A casual tone is acceptable if your target audience is mostly friends and students. It's best to use a formal tone if your target audience is professionals.


Add humor!

What makes a humorous essay so engaging? It is the topic, or the writer's writing style that makes satire essays so interesting. Humor is the key ingredient to any satire essay. You want your audience to laugh at the absurdity or inanity of a person or situation. Irony, sarcasm or hyperbole are all great ways to accomplish this end.


These devices can be very effective if used in a thoughtful manner.


Be clear about the facts

Because satirical essays often use exaggeration and humor, it is crucial to write an essay that is straightforward. An essay that contains false or misleading information will not be accepted by the court of public opinion.


Therefore, facts should only be stated that are supported by strong evidence. If you want to give credibility, be sure to cite the source of your information after citing figures, theories, opinions, etc.


This would ensure your audience that your essay was credible. Avoid including arguments that you are unable to prove or find evidence.


Use the ELP Format

ELP format is a great tool to ensure that your satire essay will be professional and high-quality. ELP is an acronym that stands for ethos, logos, and pathos.


These three elements make up a large part of an essay and can either help or hinder your work. These elements are important and can be used in your essay.


Ethos informs readers about the topic at hand and their preexisting beliefs. To provide a foundation for readers, Ethos should be used as a tool in the introduction.


Logos give credibility to your work by providing facts and figures for the audience.


As the name implies, pathos will elicit the appropriate emotions and feelings from your audience. You can use this tool to invoke sadness, sympathy, anger or any other emotion.


Be tolerant

It is important to avoid making offensive statements in satire essays, even though they are often filled with irony or sarcasm.


Your audience will likely include people from all walks of life. Therefore, it is important not to make comments that could be considered discriminatory or offensive for a particular section.


The art of discerning the right line between humor and offensiveness is delicate and requires practice. You can ask teachers or colleagues to give you second opinions so that your essay doesn't offend.

Learn more at: https://proessays.net/blog/40-witty-topics-for-a-satirical-essay


July, 25 2022