Easwaran Kanason

Co - founder of NrgEdge
Last Updated: January 28, 2020
1 view
Business Trends
image

When asked in December about the projected slowdown in American shale output, the new US Energy Secretary shrugged off the notion, describing it as a mere ‘pause’. Blaming the expected slowdown to the ‘natural adjustments’ of oil and gas prices instead of a structural decline in production, Dan Brouilette is painting a rosy picture of US shale – where riches still lie underneath, waiting for the right price to be extracted. Of course he would paint such a picture. Brouilette is the new Energy Secretary, replacing Rick Perry. He couldn’t come in on a message of doom and gloom. But his pretty picture isn’t accurate either.

Schlumberger just posted a US$10 billion loss for the full year 2019, despite relatively flat y-o-y revenues. CEO Oliver Le Peuch called its international performance ‘positive’, but blamed ‘land market weakness’ causing a sharp decline in North American revenues and profits. Land market is code word for shale, and Schlumberger isn’t the only one facing problems. Halliburton announced a loss of US$1.1 billion in 2019, taking a US$2.2 billion charge on weakening US shale activity as North American revenue for Halliburton fell by 21% in 4Q19 and 18% for the whole year. While its results managed to beat analyst predictions – already stung by Schlumberger’s results – Halliburton doesn’t expect things to get rosier either, signalling that it expected ‘customer spending’ in North America to be down again in 2020.

And it isn’t just service companies suffering. US supermajor Chevron booked a US$11 billion write-down on a collection of assets in its latest set of financials, including on a major deepwater project in the Gulf of Mexico, the Kitimat LNG project in Canada and onshore Appalachian shale assets. Taken as a whole, the total impairment might coming from Chevron’s lowered forecast for oil and gas prices to the US$55-60/b range for 2020, but that shale was singled out is a major factor. And Chevron isn’t the only one. BP, Repsol and even ExxonMobil are expecting weakness. Only Shell and Total, who haven’t devoted as much attention to US shale, particularly the Permian, have been relatively insulated.  

Why is this happening? There are two different factors operating. From a producers’ standpoint, the rising tide of US shale output is contributing to weakening global prices  for oil – and that has a lot to do with the debt burden of existing US shale players, who have to keep drilling to pay off loans. Added conventional production coming online from Guyana, Brazil and Norway at the same time aren’t helping with prices either, despite OPEC+’s best intentions. From a service company’s perspective, firms like Schlumberger and Halliburton derive their revenue from drilling activity, not drilling output. And US drilling activity has dropped steeply over the past year, currently down by over 250 rigs according to the Baker Hughes weekly rig count. Much of this is onshore, principally in the Permian but also in other basins, as the once nimble and dynamic drillers are forced to stop activity either through bankruptcy or to shut shop temporarily as crude prices fall to uneconomical levels.

The US EIA has issued a new forecast, predicting that US shale output will slow down to a 1.1 mmb/d gain over 2020. That’s still optimistic, taking total US production to 13.3 mmb/d. In 2021, however, the EIA think output growth will fall even further, to an annual gain of just 400,000 b/d. Implicit to that forecast is that the EIA expects prices to remain subdued over the new two years, because shale drillers would respond to higher prices with increased drilling. There is also production structure to consider. Shale well produce immediate results, but show steep declines after. From 2012 to 2019, the amount of drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) wells – ie. wells that can be exploited within a short time frame – grew and grew; in the last 9 months, the glut of DUCs has shrunk – suggested that the industry is not drilling new wells as fast as they are completing already-drilled. Drilling activity has declined, and the chronic decline in the Baker Hughes active rig count – 18 of the last 21 weeks showed a net loss of rigs – is just proof of that.

It may not be the picture that Dan Brouilette wants to paint, but it is reality. The shale slowdown is real. It is also true that shale activity would increase if prices rose to more viable levels – say the US$65-70/b range – but let’s be honest, what are the odds of that happening when shale itself is the cause of weakening prices.

Read more:
shale permian USA oil production EIA Schlumberger
3
4 1

Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today

Latest NrgBuzz

Funko Action Figures: Collectible Figurines

Funko Action Figuresare a popular collectible toy that is now being incorporated into the workplace to motivate employees. The action figures have been used as an alternative to the traditional desk calendar or as a prize for top performers. With this type of incentive, employers can expect their employees to feel more motivated and productive.


Many employers have found that Funko Action Figures are a great way to motivate their employees and provide incentives for high performance at work. Funko Action Figures are a popular collectible toy that is now incorporated into the workplace. These small collectibles are given to employees to motivate them. Funko figures were once only available at comic book stores, but now they are being used in offices for this purpose.


The company is called Zappos and they first introduced this idea back in 2009. They gave these figurines to their employees as a way of motivating and rewarding them for their hard work and dedication. Although it’s not very clear why the action figures themselves motivate people, we can see that it has been working well for Zappos as they have continued to use it since 2009. These soft-bodied vinyl figures, often called "Pop!" Figures were originally conceived by Mike Becker and founded by Alan Becker.


The Funko Pop! Action Figure is a line of collectible toys produced by the company Funko LLC. They are typically stylized vinyl figures depicting characters from various media and entertainment. First introduced to the public in 2005, the company was originally founded as a bobblehead company in 1998 and became popular through distribution at chain retailers such as Walmart and Target. The first wave of Funko Pops was based on Disney properties like Mickey Mouse as well as other popular culture icons such as Conan O’Brien and Catwoman.


Funko Action Figures are collectible figurines that often depict pop culture characters. They are often used in the office to motivate employees and provide a sense of community. Funko has established itself as a major player in the toy industry with its trademarked Pop! vinyl figures. This company is taking on new ventures like collecting by introducing Funko Action Figures, for example, Boba Fett from the Star Wars movies. This type of product is sometimes called a 'blind box' because you don't know which figure you're getting until you open it. The Boston-based company, BuzzFeed, has introduced this type of toy into their office to help with team building and morale. The employees at this company seem to have a lot of fun with them.


May, 25 2022
Asset Works - Fleet Management Software

Asset Works FleetFocus fleet management software is a powerful solution designed to help asset- and infrastructure-intensive organizations control costs and streamline operations. By tracking vehicle location and maintenance history, fleet managers can extend the useful life of their fleet and prevent costly downtime. With preventive maintenance scheduling, work order and labor tracking, and parts and inventory tracking, FleetFocus helps fleet managers maximize efficiency while minimizing expenses. As a result, Asset Works fleet management solutions deliver industry-leading value for fleet managers around the world.

Support: [email protected]


May, 24 2022
Where to buy your Gun Parts from?

It is important to know where to gun parts from. There are many places you can buy them from, but it is important to choose the right place so that you get the best quality and service. There are many places where you can buy gun parts from. You can buy them from gun stores, online retailers, and even at a flea market.



One of the best places to buy gun parts from is Always Armed.They have a wide range of products available, they offer great customer service, and they have convenient shipping options.



Buying gun parts can be a difficult task. There are many different types of firearms and there is a huge variety of gun parts. The right place to buy gun parts depends on what you are looking for and what kind of firearm you have.



If you are looking for a specific part, then your best bet is to search online. You can find the part that you need at an affordable price and it will be delivered right to your door. If you want to save time, then this is the best option for you. If not, then your local gun store might be the best option for you because they have many different types of firearms as well as all kinds of other equipment that might come in handy for hunting or shooting sports.



When it comes to buying gun parts, you need to be very careful. There are a lot of scams out there and some companies just want to take your money and never send you the goods. 

May, 20 2022