Last Updated: February 10, 2020
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The final set of financial numbers for 2019, and for an interesting decade in terms of oil prices, came to an end as a tale of two parts. With the quarter characterised by stubborn crude prices despite OPEC+’s efforts and slumping gas prices amid a global glut, it was always going to be a challenging quarter. Most numbers from supermajors and majors came in as disappointing, but there were several bright spots where even the most optimistic expectations were exceed.

Shell, the first to report, set the tone for the cycle, showing a 48% fall in net profits from a 19% y-o-y drop in revenue. Citing weaker refining and chemical margins from slowing global growth with China and the US still locked in a trade war, the weaker results led Shell to scale back the pace of its US$25 billion share buyback programme. With only US$1 billion of shares to be bought back in Q12020 – down from the regular US$2.75 billion per quarter. Shell warned that the programme’s schedule was still at risk due to the softening global economy. It is likely that Shell will miss its deadline of completing the buyback by end-2020; investors were not impressed, and sent Shell’s share prices down to a two-year low in response.

The US supermajors came next, with both ExxonMobil and Chevron failing to meet market expectations. For ExxonMobil, revenue and net profits were both down by 5%, with the company blaming the ‘tough environment’ and depressed margins for its oil, gas, refining and chemicals businesses that will spill into 2020. Its financials, however, were boosted by the sale of its non-strategic assets in Norway, and noted that its oil extraction in Guyana was going ahead of schedule and could have a positive impact on Q1 financials. Unlike ExxonMobil, Chevron did not have strategic asset sales to fall back on. In fact, it went the opposite way. Having warned investors that it was preparing to take a major write-down on a collection of assets, including shale gas production in Appalachia and deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico, the final charge came in at US$10.4 billion. That wiped Chevron’s profits out, reporting a net loss of US$6.6 billion for Q419. Segment performance was stable, beating analyst expectations in some cases. But the pressure of low oil and gas prices will persist.

Things then got better. In the final results for retiring CEO Bob Dudley, who will be replaced by Bernard Looney, BP reported net profits of US$2.57 billion, exceeding even then highest analyst estimate. With a solid upstream performance and boosted by its in-house trading arm, BP bucked the negative trend, allowing it to raise its dividend level, a notion that it had rejected in the last quarter, while also completing a US$1.5 billion share buyback programme. Rounding off the quintet, Total also exceed the expectations of the market. Although the French company was also affected by slumping natural gas prices, along with strikes at its French refineries, record production boosted net profits to US$3.17 billion, almost unchanged y-o-y. The ramp-up of key natural gas projects, Yamal in Russia and Ichthys in Australia, along with the start of the Egina and Kaombo crude oil projects in West Africa, raised upstream output by 9% over a quarter where all other rivals saw their production decline.

When the decade started in 2010, crude oil prices were riding high at US$80/b. It would soon peak at nearly US$120/b in 2011, stay elevated for 3 years, halving by end-2014, slumping down to US$30/b in 2016 before beginning a gradual recovery. This 10-year see-saw ride has been mirrored in the financial performance of the energy supermajors. With a new decade starting with plenty of uncertainty, the fiscal discipline adopted since 2015 by the supermajors will be key to supporting their business activities going forward in troubled times.

Supermajor Financials Q4 2019:

  • ExxonMobil – Revenue (US$67.2 billion, down 5% y-o-y), Net profit (US$5.69, down 5% y-o-y)
  • Shell - Revenue (US$85.1 billion, down 19% y-o-y), Net profit (US$2.93 billion, down 48% y-o-y)
  • Chevron – Revenue (US$36.4 billion, down 14% y-o-y), Net profit (-US$6.6 billion, down 300% y-o-y)
  • BP - Revenue (US$72.2 billion, down 6% y-o-y), Net profit (US$2.57 billion, down 26% y-o-y)
  • Total - Revenue (US$43.4 billion, down 6% y-o-y), Net profit (US$3.17 billion, unchanged y-o-y)

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