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Last Updated: March 6, 2020
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 2 March 2020 – Brent: US$51/b; WTI: US$45/b

  • Global crude oil prices are now at three-year lows, as the weakening and deepening of the Covid-19 outbreak wrecks havoc with global demand, both on a sentiment- and on an actual consumption-basis
  • The freefall, which saw the worst weekly oil drop since 2011, has prompted calls for the OPEC+ to act; however, that requires the duelling factions within the oil producer club to cooperate on the necessity and scale of cuts
  • Despite saying that the Covid-19 outbreak will be ‘temporary’, Saudi Arabia is still urging OPEC+ to agree on a 1 million b/d cut through June 2020 at least at a planned extraordinary OPEC+ meeting this week in Vienna; the OEPC technical committee originally recommended a 600,000 b/d cut
  • Russia is reportedly ready to cooperate to support the world oil market – based on the comments of President Vladimir Putin – though there will still be squabbles over the size and length of the new supply agreement
  • This acted to support crude oil prices at the start of this week, but a 1 mmb/d cut may not even be enough to contain the rout in crude oil prices, as there is major uncertainty over how long the pandemic will last
  • Although cases and deaths in China are plateauing, cases and deaths in three new hotspots – South Korea, Italy and Iran – are accelerating, with possibilities of new hotspots in Europe and the USA; records of deaths suggest that the actual number of cases may be far higher based on the observed fatality rate
  • The outbreak in Europe is causing employers to order self-quarantines, with Chevron and Unipec among those directing workers to stay home; if this extends to manufacturing facilities, the demand hit will be even greater than it is now
  • Chinese demand for oil and gas continues to be weak, with reports of contracted crude and LNG cargoes cancelled, delayed or held back; some of these cargoes are being offered to the next largest market – India – at cheaper prices
  • The US active rig count recorded a net loss of 1 oil rig according to the Baker Hughes Rig Count, keeping the total number of rigs at 790 sites, or down 248 rigs y-o-y
  • The direction of prices will depend very much on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna Friday – and whether the rest of the countries can persuade Russia to join in a new supply deal; if the outcome is favourable, crude prices could be supported into the range of US$49-54/b for Brent and US$45-49/b for WTI

Headlines of the week


  • Shell has announced plans for a major deepwater well campaign in Mexico – 4 wells each in 2020 and 2021, part of an overall 10-13 planned – though it admits that any potential fields will likely start up after the current new government (under Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) and its pro-Pemex policies serve its term
  • Rosneft is attempting to skirt US sanctions on the Venezuelan crude export complex, shifting trades to its affiliate TNK Trading International after Rosneft itself – Venezuela’s top crude buyers – was sanctioned by the US Treasury
  • The Trump administration in the US is finalising a plan for Arctic oil drilling, aiming to lease out land in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
  • Eni has raised estimates of oil in place at its Agogo field in Angola to some 1 billion barrels, a 40% increase contributed by the new Agogo-3 well
  • Kazakhstan will resume pipeline exports of crude to China this month, after shipments were suspended following organic chloride contamination of crude
  • Teck Resources will be abandoning plans for its Frontier oil sands project in Alberta, taking a US$850 million write down on the cancellation
  • BP will be leaving three US trade associations, including the main lobby group American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, following an alignment review on climate policies and activities that ‘could not be resolved’


  • Algeria has restarted the Sidi Rezine refinery in Algiers after completing a modernisation overhaul that has increase capacity by 35% to some 85 kb/d
  • ExxonMobil will be restarting the largest CDU at its 502,500 b/d Baton Rouge refinery in Louisiana after a fire knocked out operations in early February
  • The oil trade row between Russia and Belarus has forced state refiner Belneftekhim to slash refinery utilisation rates by half since January
  • Saudi Aramco has gained EU antitrust appeal to proceed with the acquisition of 70% in Saudi petrochemicals group SABIC
  • Saudi Aramco’s trading arm Aramco Trading Company has established a trading desk in London to support its operations in Europe and the Americas

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Saudi Arabia has announced plans to invest US$110 billion to develop its unconventional natural gas reserves in the eastern Jafurah field, which is estimated to hold some 200 trillion cubic feet of wet gas; Jafurah output is expected to start in 2024, rising to a peak of 2.2 bcf/d by 2036
  • Venture Global has signed a 20-year LNG agreement with Electricité de France for 1 mtpa of LNG from the start date of the Plaquemines LNG export terminal
  • ExxonMobil and Indian Oil have signed an agreement to collaborate on virtual gas pipeline in India, potentially delivering LNG by road, rail or waterways in a fast-growing LNG market that is hampered by a lack of pipeline infrastructure
  • New Fortress Energy has started work on its LNG receiving and regasification terminal in the port of Pichilingue in Baja California Sur, Mexico

Natural Gas/LNG

  • The success of Saudi Aramco’s IPO is inspiring other Middle Eastern producers to go public, with Bahrain is looking to transfer its oil and gas assets in a potential state fund to be sold to investors to balance its budget
  • Total’s acquisition of Anadarko’s assets in Ghana – part of a deal signed between Occidental Petroleum and Total – has been held up over a capital gains tax claim of some US$500 million

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Libya & OPEC’s Quota

The constant domestic fighting in Libya – a civil war, to call a spade a spade, has taken a toll on the once-prolific oil production in the North African country. After nearly a decade of turmoil, it appears now that the violent clash between the UN-recognised government in Tripoli and the upstart insurgent Libyan National Army (LNA) forces could be ameliorating into something less destructive with the announcement of a pact between the two sides that would to some normalisation of oil production and exports.

A quick recap. Since the 2011 uprising that ended the rule of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been in a state of perpetual turmoil. Led by General Khalifa Haftar and the remnants of loyalists that fought under Gaddafi’s full-green flag, the Libyan National Army stands in direct opposition to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) that was formed in 2015. Caught between the two sides are the Libyan people and Libya’s oilfields. Access to key oilfields and key port facilities has changed hands constantly over the past few years, resulting in a start-stop rhythm that has sapped productivity and, more than once, forced Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) to issue force majeure on its exports. Libya’s largest producing field, El Sharara, has had to stop production because of Haftar’s militia aggression no fewer than four times in the past four years. At one point, all seven of Libya’s oil ports – including Zawiyah (350 kb/d), Es Sider (360 kb/d) and Ras Lanuf (230 kb/d) were blockaded as pipelines ran dry. For a country that used to produce an average of 1.2 mmb/d of crude oil, currently output stands at only 80,000 b/d and exports considerably less. Gaddafi might have been an abhorrent strongman, but political stability can have its pros.

This mutually-destructive impasse, economically, at least might be lifted, at least partially, if the GNA and LNA follow through with their agreement to let Libyan oil flow again. The deal, brokered in Moscow between the warlord Haftar and Vice President of the Libyan Presidential Council Ahmed Maiteeq calls for the ‘unrestrained’ resumption of crude oil production that has been at a near standstill since January 2020. The caveat because there always is one, is that Haftar demanded that oil revenues be ‘distributed fairly’ in order to lift the blockade he has initiated across most of the country’s upstream infrastructure.

Shortly after the announcement of the deal, the NOC announced that it would kick off restarting oil production and exports, lifting an 8-month force majeure situation, but only at ‘secure terminals and facilities’. ‘Secure’ in this cases means facilities and fields where NOC has full control, but will exclude areas and assets that the LNA rebels still have control. That’s a significant limitation, since the LNA, which includes support from local tribal groups and Russian mercenaries still controls key oilfields and terminals. But it is also a softening from the NOC, which had previously stated that it would only return to operations when all rebels had left all facilities, citing safety of its staff.

If the deal moves forward, it would certainly be an improvement to the major economic crisis faced by Libya, where cash flow has dried up and basic utilities face severe cutbacks. But it is still an ‘if’. Many within the GNA sphere are critical of the deal struck by Maiteeq, claiming that it did not involve the consultation or input of his allies. The current GNA leader, Prime Minister Fayyaz al Sarraj is also stepping down at the end of October, ushering in another political sea change that could affect the deal. Haftar is a mercurial beast, so predictions are difficult, but what is certain is that depriving a country of its chief moneymaker is a recipe for disaster on all sides. Which is why the deal will probably go ahead.

Which is bad news for the OPEC+ club. Because of its precarious situation, Libya has been exempt for the current OPEC+ supply deal. Even the best case scenarios within OPEC+ had factored out Libya, given the severe uncertainty of the situation there. But if the deal goes through and holds, it could potentially add a significant amount of restored crude supply to global markets at a time when OPEC+ itself is struggling to manage the quotas within its own, from recalcitrant members like Iraq to surprising flouters like the UAE.

Mathematically at least, the ceiling for restored Libyan production is likely in the 300-400,000 b/d range, given that Haftar is still in control of the main fields and ports. That does not seem like much, but it will give cause for dissent within OPEC on the exemption of Libya from the supply deal. Libya will resist being roped into the supply deal, and it has justification to do so. But freeing those Libyan volumes into a world market that is already suffering from oversupply and weak prices will be undermining in nature. The equation has changed, and the Libyan situation can no longer be taken for granted.

Market Outlook:

  •  Crude price trading range: Brent – US$41-43/b, WTI – US$39-41/b
  • While a resurgence in Covid-19 cases globally is undermining faith that the ongoing oil demand recovery will continue unabated, crude markets have been buoyed by a show of force by Saudi Arabia and US supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Sally
  • In a week when Iraq’s OPEC+ commitments seem even more distant with signs of its crude exports rising and key Saudi ally the UAE admitting it had ‘pumped too much recently’, the Saudi Energy Minister issued a force condemnation on breaking quotas
  • On the demand side, the IEA revised its forecast for oil demand in 2020 to an annual decline of 8.4 mmb/d, up from 8.1 mmb/d in August, citing Covid resurgences
  • In a possible preview of the future, BP issued a report stating that the ‘relentless growth of oil demand is over’, offering its own vision of future energy requirements that splits the oil world into the pro-clean lobby led by Europeans and the prevailing oil/gas orthodoxy that remains in place across North America and the rest of the world


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September, 22 2020
Average U.S. construction costs for solar and wind generation continue to fall

According to 2018 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for newly constructed utility-scale electric generators in the United States, annual capacity-weighted average construction costs for solar photovoltaic systems and onshore wind turbines have continued to decrease. Natural gas generator costs also decreased slightly in 2018.

From 2013 to 2018, costs for solar fell 50%, costs for wind fell 27%, and costs for natural gas fell 13%. Together, these three generation technologies accounted for more than 98% of total capacity added to the electricity grid in the United States in 2018. Investment in U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2018 increased by 9.3% from 2017, driven by natural gas capacity additions.

The average construction cost for solar photovoltaic generators is higher than wind and natural gas generators on a dollar-per-kilowatt basis, although the gap is narrowing as the cost of solar falls rapidly. From 2017 to 2018, the average construction cost of solar in the United States fell 21% to $1,848 per kilowatt (kW). The decrease was driven by falling costs for crystalline silicon fixed-tilt panels, which were at their lowest average construction cost of $1,767 per kW in 2018.

Crystalline silicon fixed-tilt panels—which accounted for more than one-third of the solar capacity added in the United States in 2018, at 1.7 gigawatts (GW)—had the second-highest share of solar capacity additions by technology. Crystalline silicon axis-based tracking panels had the highest share, with 2.0 GW (41% of total solar capacity additions) of added generating capacity at an average cost of $1,834 per kW.

average construction costs for solar photovoltaic electricity generators

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Generator Construction Costs and Annual Electric Generator Inventory

Total U.S. wind capacity additions increased 18% from 2017 to 2018 as the average construction cost for wind turbines dropped 16% to $1,382 per kW. All wind farm size classes had lower average construction costs in 2018. The largest decreases were at wind farms with 1 megawatt (MW) to 25 MW of capacity; construction costs at these farms decreased by 22.6% to $1,790 per kW.

average construction costs for wind farms

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Generator Construction Costs and Annual Electric Generator Inventory

Natural gas
Compared with other generation technologies, natural gas technologies received the highest U.S. investment in 2018, accounting for 46% of total capacity additions for all energy sources. Growth in natural gas electric-generating capacity was led by significant additions in new capacity from combined-cycle facilities, which almost doubled the previous year’s additions for that technology. Combined-cycle technology construction costs dropped by 4% in 2018 to $858 per kW.

average construction costs for natural gas-fired electricity generators

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Generator Construction Costs and Annual Electric Generator Inventory

September, 17 2020
Fossil fuels account for the largest share of U.S. energy production and consumption

Fossil fuels, or energy sources formed in the Earth’s crust from decayed organic material, including petroleum, natural gas, and coal, continue to account for the largest share of energy production and consumption in the United States. In 2019, 80% of domestic energy production was from fossil fuels, and 80% of domestic energy consumption originated from fossil fuels.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the U.S. total energy flow diagram to visualize U.S. energy from primary energy supply (production and imports) to disposition (consumption, exports, and net stock additions). In this diagram, losses that take place when primary energy sources are converted into electricity are allocated proportionally to the end-use sectors. The result is a visualization that associates the primary energy consumed to generate electricity with the end-use sectors of the retail electricity sales customers, even though the amount of electric energy end users directly consumed was significantly less.

U.S. primary energy production by source

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

The share of U.S. total energy production from fossil fuels peaked in 1966 at 93%. Total fossil fuel production has continued to rise, but production has also risen for non-fossil fuel sources such as nuclear power and renewables. As a result, fossil fuels have accounted for about 80% of U.S. energy production in the past decade.

Since 2008, U.S. production of crude oil, dry natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) has increased by 15 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), 14 quads, and 4 quads, respectively. These increases have more than offset decreasing coal production, which has fallen 10 quads since its peak in 2008.

U.S. primary energy overview and net imports share of consumption

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

In 2019, U.S. energy production exceeded energy consumption for the first time since 1957, and U.S. energy exports exceeded energy imports for the first time since 1952. U.S. energy net imports as a share of consumption peaked in 2005 at 30%. Although energy net imports fell below zero in 2019, many regions of the United States still import significant amounts of energy.

Most U.S. energy trade is from petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products), which accounted for 69% of energy exports and 86% of energy imports in 2019. Much of the imported crude oil is processed by U.S. refineries and is then exported as petroleum products. Petroleum products accounted for 42% of total U.S. energy exports in 2019.

U.S. primary energy consumption by source

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

The share of U.S. total energy consumption that originated from fossil fuels has fallen from its peak of 94% in 1966 to 80% in 2019. The total amount of fossil fuels consumed in the United States has also fallen from its peak of 86 quads in 2007. Since then, coal consumption has decreased by 11 quads. In 2019, renewable energy consumption in the United States surpassed coal consumption for the first time. The decrease in coal consumption, along with a 3-quad decrease in petroleum consumption, more than offset an 8-quad increase in natural gas consumption.

EIA previously published articles explaining the energy flows of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. More information about total energy consumption, production, trade, and emissions is available in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.

Principal contributor: Bill Sanchez

September, 15 2020