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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 30 March 2020 – Brent: US$22/b; WTI: US$20/b

  • Crude oil prices fell to their lowest level since March 2002, as the global oil (and gas) market deals with twin catastrophes – cratering demand from a global economic lockdown that now involves half of the world’s population and a ballooning surplus as Russia and Saudi Arabia go to war on crude prices
  • US President Donald Trump has attempted to bring Saudi Arabia and Russia back to the negotiation table to trash out a deal that would prop up oil prices; while a Trump call with Russian Premier Vladimir Putin yielded a message that ‘low prices… helps no one’, there is no concrete progress on a new wide-ranging agreement
  • Saudi Arabia, however, does not appear to be in the mood to talk, stating that it ‘has not had any contact with Moscow about oil production cuts’ or ‘enlarging the OPEC+ alliance’; the issue was not discussed at the recent (virtual) G20 meeting, and is unlikely to proceed without an equivalent pledge from the US
  • Goldman Sachs estimates that if the ramp up by Saudi Arabia and its allies continues, global crude inventories will grow by 20 million barrels per day in April and May 2020, maxing out storage capacity and even prompting the use of onshore pipeline systems as temporary storage mechanisms
  • The price crash is so bad now that Canadian heavy crude oil is now so cheap that the cost of shipping exceeds the value of the oil itself, with Western Canadian Select crude trading at a record low of US$6.45/b
  • Oil majors worldwide have slashed their capex budgets due to this; Chevron has cut US$4 billion from its spending plan, Shell will reduce its capex by US$5 billion or more and Total by 20% (or US$3 billion)
  • The crisis is really biting down on the US active rig count, which fell by 44 sites over a week to 728 (-40 for oil, -4 for gas); the situation remains even more grim in Canada, where the rig count fell by another 44 rigs to a near-historic low of 54
  • A proclamation of US President Donald Trump that Russia and Saudi Arabia are close to agreeing on a new output cut deal prompted a recovery in oil prices, but many in the market doubt the veracity of the claim; with so much turmoil, crude oil prices will trade in an expanded range of US$22-30/b for Brent, and US$18-24/b for WTI


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Rosneft has sold its assets in Venezuela – mainly upstream, but also some trading operations – to a Russian state-oil company, as it aims to avoid further sanctions by the US; Rosneft has already received US sanctions on two of its units after it had continued to operate in Maduro-controlled Venezuela
  • Ineos has delayed the summer shutdown planned for essential maintenance at the Forties Pipeline System in the UK North Sea that was scheduled for June 16 to ‘August, at the earliest’
  • China’s CNOOC hit some major milestones in 2019, reporting net oil and gas production of 506.5 million boe, exceeding the 500 million mark for the first time, with 23 commercial and 30 new discoveries made

Midstream/Downstream

  • Refiners globally have announced a swathe of delays to planned turnaround, maintenance or new commissioning in existing refineries, including a delay in scheduled major turnaround at Neste’s Porvoo site in Finland and a delay in restarting Total’s 102 kb/d Grandpuits refinery in France
  • In contrast, some refiners are still pushing ahead with restarting their sites after maintenance, with Gunvor restarting its 110 lb/d Ingolstadt refinery in Germany and PDVSA looking to resume gasoline production at its mothballed 146 kb/d El Palito refinery in Venezuela
  • The government of Curacao is pursuing an arbitration claim amounting to US$162 million from PDVSA, seeking overdue payment, maintenance costs and environmental damage over the 335 kb/d Isla refinery

Natural Gas/LNG

  • ExxonMobil and its partners on the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique are planning to delay FID on the US$23 billion project that was due in June 2020
  • Australia’s offshore energy regulator has given approval to Woodside for the Scarborough gas field development in Western Australia, which will eventually underpin an expansion train at the Pluto LNG facility
  • The US FERC has approved the proposed Jordan Cove LNG terminal and Pacific Connector Gas Pipeline projects in Oregon, which would be the first US gas export facility on the West Coast connecting to the Pacific
  • India’s LNG import trio – Petronet LNG, GAIL and Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation – have issued force majeure notices, delaying LNG cargo deliveries from key suppliers such as Qatar and Australia
  • Shell has postponed FID on the Crux gas and condensate development project in Western Australia, citing the Covid-19 related global downturn
  • Sempra is proceeding with the first phase of its Energia Costa Azul LNG project in Baja California, Mexico on schedule, which should bring a 2.4 mtpa liquefaction train onstream by 2022
  • Dominion Energy bought into two mid-sized LNG operations in the USA, taking 100% ownership of Pivotal LNG’s liquefaction facility in Trussville, Alabama and 50% ownership of the Jax LNG bunkering operation in Florida
  • Construction of the Nigeria LNG Train 7, budgeted at US$10 billion, is likely to be pushed back from an initial May 2020 into Q3 2020
  • Shell is exiting the planned Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, selling off its 50% stake but continuing to support its partner Energy Transfer

Oil oil and gas news oil and gas industry LNG oil and gas companies news weekly update market watch market trends latest oil and gas trends
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