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Last Updated: June 24, 2020
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daily natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on IHS Markit

Daily natural gas deliveries to U.S. facilities that produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export were a record 9.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in late March 2020, but deliveries fell to less than 4.0 Bcf/d in June, according to data by IHS Markit. A mild winter and COVID-19 mitigation efforts have led to declining global natural gas demand and high natural gas storage inventories in Europe and Asia, reducing the need for LNG imports. Historically low natural gas and LNG spot prices in Europe and Asia have affected the economic viability of U.S. LNG exports. Trade press reports indicate that more than 70 cargoes were canceled for June and July deliveries, and more than 40 cargoes were canceled for August deliveries. In comparison, 74 cargoes were exported from the United States in January 2020.

In 2019, on an annual basis, the United States became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter; only Qatar and Australia exported more LNG. Several U.S. LNG export facilities became operational in 2019. Most recently, in May 2020, the third train at Freeport LNG in Texas began commercial operations. Later this summer, the third train at Cameron and three of Elba Island’s small-scale moveable modular liquefaction system units are expected to come online, bringing U.S. total liquefaction capacity to 8.9 Bcf/d of baseload LNG export capacity and 10.1 Bcf/d of peak export capacity.

quarterly U.S. LNG exports and export capacity

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Liquefaction Capacity Table, Short-Term Energy Outlook

In January 2020, 74 LNG export cargoes were loaded in the United States, and LNG exports totaled 8.1 Bcf/d—both record highs. LNG exports were only slightly lower from February through April, but they started to decline in May. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that 62 cargoes were loaded in April and 52 cargoes were loaded in May. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA estimates that gross U.S. LNG exports in April and May totaled 7.0 Bcf/d and 5.8 Bcf/d, respectively. EIA forecasts that gross U.S. LNG exports will fall to a low of 3.2 Bcf/d in July 2020 before increasing in each of the remaining months of the year.

Global spot and forward LNG prices in Asia (such as the JKM price benchmark representing spot LNG prices in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China) and natural gas prices in Europe (such as the TTF price benchmark in the Netherlands) have been at historical lows in recent months, which has affected the economic viability of U.S. LNG exports. U.S. LNG exports are priced at a premium to Henry Hub, in addition to tolling fees and transportation costs to destination markets. Higher spot and futures prices at Henry Hub compared with TTF prices in Europe since early May contributed to some cargo cancellations from the United States this summer. Based on the number of canceled cargoes, EIA expects U.S. LNG export capacity will be utilized at less than 50% during June, July, and August 2020.

monthly crude oil, natural gas, and LNG spot prices

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg Finance L.P., SP Global Platts

prices international natural gas spot prices STEO Short Term Energy Outlook exports imports United States LNG Liquefied natural gas
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Chicago Cubs Shirts: Wear Style with Ultimate Comfort!

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The New Wave of Renewable Fuels

In 2021, the makeup of renewables has also changed drastically. Technologies such as solar and wind are no longer novel, as is the idea of blending vegetable oils into road fuels or switching to electric-based vehicles. Such ideas are now entrenched and are not considered enough to shift the world into a carbon neutral future. The new wave of renewables focus on converting by-products from other carbon-intensive industries into usable fuels. Research into such technologies has been pioneered in universities and start-ups over the past two decades, but the impetus of global climate goals is now seeing an incredible amount of money being poured into them as oil & gas giants seek to rebalance their portfolios away from pure hydrocarbons with a goal of balancing their total carbon emissions in aggregate to zero.

Traditionally, the European players have led this drive. Which is unsurprising, since the EU has been the most driven in this acceleration. But even the US giants are following suit. In the past year, Chevron has poured an incredible amount of cash and effort in pioneering renewables. Its motives might be less than altruistic, shareholders across America have been particularly vocal about driving this transformation but the net results will be positive for all.

Chevron’s recent efforts have focused on biomethane, through a partnership with global waste solutions company Brightmark. The joint venture Brightmark RNG Holdings operations focused on convert cow manure to renewable natural gas, which are then converted into fuel for long-haul trucks, the very kind that criss-cross the vast highways of the US delivering goods from coast to coast. Launched in October 2020, the joint venture was extended and expanded in August, now encompassing 38 biomethane plants in seven US states, with first production set to begin later in 2021. The targeting of livestock waste is particularly crucial: methane emissions from farms is the second-largest contributor to climate change emissions globally. The technology to capture methane from manure (as well as landfills and other waste sites) has existed for years, but has only recently been commercialised to convert methane emissions from decomposition to useful products.

This is an arena that another supermajor – BP – has also made a recent significant investment in. BP signed a 15-year agreement with CleanBay Renewables to purchase the latter’s renewable natural gas (RNG) to be mixed and sold into select US state markets. Beginning with California, which has one of the strictest fuel standards in the US and provides incentives under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to reduce carbon intensity – CleanBay’s RNG is derived not from cows, but from poultry. Chicken manure, feathers and bedding are all converted into RNG using anaerobic digesters, providing a carbon intensity that is said to be 95% less than the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of pure fossil fuels and non-conversion of poultry waste matter. BP also has an agreement with Gevo Inc in Iowa to purchase RNG produced from cow manure, also for sale in California.

But road fuels aren’t the only avenue for large-scale embracing of renewables. It could take to the air, literally. After all, the global commercial airline fleet currently stands at over 25,000 aircraft and is expected to grow to over 35,000 by 2030. All those planes will burn a lot of fuel. With the airline industry embracing the idea of AAF (or Alternative Aviation Fuels), developments into renewable jet fuels have been striking, from traditional bio-sources such as palm or soybean oil to advanced organic matter conversion from agricultural waste and manure. Chevron, again, has signed a landmark deal to advance the commercialisation. Together with Delta Airlines and Google, Chevron will be producing a batch of sustainable aviation fuel at its El Segundo refinery in California. Delta will then use the fuel, with Google providing a cloud-based framework to analyse the data. That data will then allow for a transparent analysis into carbon emissions from the use of sustainable aviation fuel, as benchmark for others to follow. The analysis should be able to confirm whether or not the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s estimates that renewable jet fuel can reduce lifecycle carbon intensity by up to 80%. And to strengthen the measure, Delta has pledged to replace 10% of its jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.

In a parallel, but no less pioneering lane, France’s TotalEnergies has announced that it is developing a 100% renewable fuel for use in motorsports, using bioethanol sourced from residues produced by the French wine industry (among others) at its Feyzin refinery in Lyon. This, it believes, will reduce the racing sports’ carbon emissions by an immediate 65%. The fuel, named Excellium Racing 100, is set to debut at the next season of the FIA World Endurance Championship, which includes the iconic 24 Hours of Le Mans 2022 race.

But Chevron isn’t done yet. It is also falling back on the long-standing use of vegetable oils blended into US transport fuels by signing a wide-ranging agreement with commodity giant Bunge. Called a ‘farmer-to-fuelling station’ solution, Bunge’s soybean processing facilities in Louisiana and Illinois will be the source of meal and oil that will be converted by Chevron into diesel and jet fuel. With an investment of US$600 million, Chevron will assist Bunge in doubling the combined capacity of both plants by 2024, in line with anticipated increases in the US biofuels blending mandates.

Even ExxonMobil, one of the most reticent of the supermajors to embrace renewables wholesale, is getting in on the action. Its Imperial Oil subsidiary in Canada has announced plans to commercialise renewable diesel at a new facility near Edmonton using plant-based feedstock and hydrogen. The venture does only target the Canadian market – where political will to drive renewable adoption is far higher than in the US – but similar moves have already been adopted by other refiners for the US market, including major investments by Phillips 66 and Valero.

Ultimately, these recent moves are driven out of necessity. This is the way the industry is moving and anyone stubborn enough to ignore it will be left behind. Combined with other major investments driven by European supermajors over the past five years, this wider and wider adoption of renewable can only be better for the planet and, eventually, individual bottom lines. The renewables ball is rolling fast and is only gaining momentum.

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Market Outlook:

  • Crude price trading range: Brent – US$71-73/b, WTI – US$68-70/b
  • Global crude benchmarks have stayed steady, even as OPEC+ sticks to its plans to ease supply quotas against the uncertainty of rising Covid-19 cases worldwide
  • However, the success of vaccination drives has kindled hope that the effect of lockdowns – if any – will be mild, with pockets of demand resurgence in Europe; in China, where there has been a zero-tolerance drive to stamp out Covid outbreaks, fuel consumption is strengthening again, possibly tightening fuel balances in Q4
  • Meanwhile, much of the US Gulf of Mexico crude production remains hampered by the effects of Hurricane Ida, providing a counter-balance on the supply side

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