Easwaran Kanason

Co - founder of NrgEdge
Last Updated: August 17, 2020
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Business Trends
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The word odyssey is of Greek origin, closely linked to the myth of Odysseus and his epic journey home after the Trojan War. In the modern context, it means a long, often maritime, voyage marked with many changes of fortune. Roald Amundsen’s journey to the south pole, for example, is an odyssey. ExxonMobil’s journey from a splinter of John D Rockefeller’s Standard Oil to become the largest oil supermajor is also an odyssey. And now, it looks increasingly likely that South Africa’s long upstream journey can be characterised as one too.

The next chapter of this odyssey is now unfolding. Just right now, Total has readied the Odfjell DeepSea Stavanger drill rig in the turbulent waters off South Africa, ready to spud a new wildcat in the offshore Block 11B/12B. This Luiperd-1 well is being very closely watched. Not just because it promises some blockbuster results based on initial assessments, but because of how it could change the narrative of energy in South Africa.

In this tale, the DeepSea Stavanger rig is the hero. In early 2019, the 44,000 tonne rig parked itself in the strong currents of South Africa’s south coast, where a well of 3,633 metres was drilled. Gas condensate was struck; potentially over a billion barrels of that and the Brulpadda discovery changed the story of South African upstream. It was a form of affirmation for Total, which owns 45% of the block’s licensing rights alongside other partners like Qatar Petroleum and Canadian Natural Resources, because several attempts had been made to drill Brulpadda as early as 2014, but failed due to the complicated weather and ocean patterns that plague this part of the sea. Fresh off this victory, the DeepSea Stavanger has now been relocated to Luiperd, with hopes of striking black gold.  

Early indications are promising. The Block 11B/12B is located in the Outeniqua basin 175km offshore, with depths ranging from 200-1800 metres. This is where the Indian Ocean meets the Atlantic, and the confluence creates a rich patch of sea where spectacular wildlife displays thrive, but also creates dramatically difficult weather and oceanic conditions. Drillers have long-known that this Block held potential energy riches, but were unable to tame the waters. Until Brulpadda. Its discovery proved not just that large hydrocarbon resources were present but also that the naturally difficult conditions could be overcome. Brulpadda was a game changer, and its successful discovery meant that nearby pools of opportunity had been de-risked. Luiperd is sufficiently close to Brulpadda to promise a continuation of that success story (and through preliminary 3D seismic work), lying in the southwest corner of the block. Which is exactly why the Luiperd-1 wildcat is so closely watched: it has all the main elements of a TV drama - potential riches, a proven hero and a turbulent backdrop. And if Luiperd-1 meets expectations, it will be more than just success for Total, it will turn South Africa’s upstream journey from a tragedy to an epic heroic tale.

South Africa might be the largest economy in Africa, but its upstream industry is only a minnow. Historically, upstream production came only from Block 9 and South Coast Gas fields (located in the Outeniqua Basin); oil production began in 1997 and ceased in 2013, while natural gas fared better, starting in 1992 and still supplying the Mossel Bay gas-to-liquids plant. The offshore Tugela, Orange and Bredasdo RP Basin hold potential, but exploration have always been stymied by the depth of the seabed in these areas and the turbulent waters above. The former issue has been solved by major advances in deepwater technology, but the latter seems unsurmountable. Until the Odfjell DeepSea Stavanger rig showed up.

With its appearance, South African upstream had suddenly moved from a distant possibility to a concrete opportunity through Brulpadda. It is a game changer; not just because the government hopes to leverage this to attract billions in potential investments but also because of the fiscal impact: South Africa is a major refining centre for sub-Saharan Africa, but imports all of its oil and is running short on gas. Brulpadda changed that. Which is why Luiperd is so important. The results there will either extend the success narrative, or throw some caution onto currently unbridled optimism. South Africa will be hoping that it will be the former. Because only then can its upstream Renaissance truly turn into an odyssey. Watch out Guyana.

Market Outlook:

  • Crude price trading range: Brent – US$43-45/b, WTI – US$40-42/b
  • Global crude oil price benchmarks recovered after a devastating eruption in Lebanon, on signs that global demand is gradually picking up
  • Car sales in China have recovered and are now accelerating, while gasoline consumption in the US has reached pre-Covid levels (although still 1.5 mmb/d below historical summer driving season peaks)
  • Saudi Aramco stated that Asian crude demand was almost back to pre-Covid levels, going ahead with a plan to pay out US$75 billion in dividends
  • However, OPEC does caution that near-term demand is still vulnerable, with a warning that overall fuels demand for 2020 could be lower than previously expected

End of Article 

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