In 2019, U.S. shipments of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules, also referred to as solar panels, reached a record-high 16.4 million kilowatts (kW), 2.9 million kW more than the previous record of 13.5 million kW set in 2016. Solar PV module shipments include imports, exports, and modules produced and sold domestically, but they exclude modules shipped for resale. These shipments have steadily increased since 2006, driven by significant price declines and policy incentives that encourage solar PV installation. U.S. PV shipments declined in 2017 and 2018 when policy reforms and import tariffs went into effect.
The cost of PV modules has declined significantly since 2006, helping drive the growth of solar module shipments. The average value of solar PV module shipments, a proxy for price, decreased from $3.50 per peak watt in 2006 to $0.40 per peak watt in 2019. In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) annual PV shipments report, average values and shipments are reported in terms of peak watts, which reflect the power output under full solar radiation.
Higher module efficiency, greater labor productivity, and lower supply chain costs are largely responsible for the declines in the average value of solar PV modules. Recent declines in the price of modules and components that started in mid-2016 are related, in part, to both global oversupply resulting from decreased demand in China and increased cost-competitiveness within the industry.
Because the United States exports few modules, solar PV module shipments generally track domestic PV capacity additions; differences between the two are usually attributed to timing between shipping and installing. EIA categorizes PV capacity additions as utility-scale additions, which include facilities with a capacity of one megawatt (MW) or more, and small-scale additions, which are largely residential solar installations.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report, Annual Electric Generator Report, and Annual Electric Power Industry Report
Note: Data on small-scale additions start in 2015.
In 2019, residential solar PV installations totaled more than 2.5 gigawatts (GW). This increase is partially a result of homeowner incentives for installing solar arrays, such as the California Solar Initiative and the New York Megawatt Block program, as well as other state-level policies and incentives.
Although solar shipments have seen an upward trend, growth was interrupted in 2017 and 2018. In 2017, residential installations decreased as a result of state-level net metering policy changes, fewer state-level incentives, and changes in the business strategies of some of the top national solar installers.
In 2018, solar PV module shipments recorded the fewest shipments since 2014, largely as a result of new tariffs. Effective February 7, 2018, the U.S. government placed tariffs on imported solar cells and modules, starting at a 30% tariff rate and decreasing five percentage points each subsequent year for four years.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report
In 2019, imports accounted for 94% of total solar PV shipments. Anti-dumping tariffs imposed on solar products from China and Taiwan in 2012 and 2014 led some solar PV manufacturers located in the two countries to outsource their production to countries not covered by the anti-dumping duties.
Malaysia has attracted a number of solar panel companies looking to offshore their panel production, including some Chinese and Taiwanese firms as well as American, German, South Korean, and Japanese companies. Malaysia is now one of the world’s largest solar panel producers, and it was the leading country of origin for U.S. solar panel imports in 2019, with 4.8 million peak kW shipped.
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Supply chains are currently in crisis. They have been for a long time now, ever since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic reshaped the way the world works. Stressed shipping networks and operational blockages – coupled with China’s insistence on a Covid-zero policy – means that cargo tanker rates are at an all-time high and that there just aren’t enough of them. McDonalds and KFCs in Asia are running out of French fries to sell, not because there aren’t enough potatoes in Idaho, but because there aren’t enough ships to deliver them to Japan or to Singapore from Los Angeles. The war in Ukraine has placed a particular emphasis on food supply chains by disrupting global wheat and sunflower oil supply chains and kicking off distressingly high levels of food price inflation across North Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It was against this backdrop that Indonesia announced a complete ban on palm oil exports. That nuclear option shocked the markets, set off a potential new supply chain crisis and has particular implications on future of crude oil pricing and biofuels in Asia.
A brief recap. Like most of Asia, Indonesia has been grappling with food price inflation as consequence of Covid-19. Like most of Asia, Indonesia has been attempting to control this through a combination of shielding its most vulnerable citizens through continued subsidies while attempting to optimise supply chains. Like most of Asia, Indonesia hasn’t been to control the market at all, because uncoordinated attempts across a wide spectrum of countries to achieve a similar level of individual protectionism is self-defeating.
Cooking oil is a major product of sensitive importance in Indonesia, and one that it is self-sufficient in as a result of its status as the world’s largest palm oil producer. So large is Indonesia in that regard that its excess palm oil production has been directed to increasingly higher biodiesel mandates, with a B40 mandate – diesel containing 40% of palm material – originally schedule for full implementation this year. But as palm oil prices started rising to all-time highs at the beginning of January, cooking oil started becoming scarcer in Indonesia. The government blamed hoarding and – wary of the Ramadan period and domestic unrest – implemented a Domestic Market Obligation on palm oil refineries, directing them to devote 20% of projected exports for domestic use. Increasingly stricter terms for the DMO continued over February and March, only for an abrupt U-turn in mid-March that removed the DMO completely. But as the war in Ukraine drove prices even further, Indonesia shocked the market by announcing an total ban on palm oil exports in late April. Chaotically, the ban was first clarified to be palm olein only (straight refining cooking oil), but then flip-flopped into a total ban of crude palm oil as well. Markets went haywire, prices jumped to historical highs and Indonesia’s trading partners reacted with alarm.
Joko Widodo has said that the ban will be indefinite until domestic cooking oil prices ‘moderate’. With the global situation as it is, ‘moderate’ is unlikely to be achieved until the end of 2022 at least, if ‘moderate’ is taken to be the previous level of palm oil prices – roughly half of current pricing. Logistically, Indonesia cannot hold out on the ban for more than two months. Only a third of Indonesia’s monthly palm oil production is consumed domestically; the rest is exported. An indefinite ban means that not only fill storage tanks up beyond capacity and estates forced to let fruit rot, but Indonesia will be missing out on crucial revenue from its crude palm oil export tax. Which is used to fund its biodiesel subsidies.
And that’s where the implications on oil come in. Indonesia’s ham-fisted attempt at protectionism has dire implications on biofuels policies in Asia. Palm oil prices within Indonesia might sink as long as surplus volumes can’t make it beyond the borders, but international palm oil prices will remain high as consuming countries pivot to producers like Malaysia, Thailand, Papua New Guinea, West Africa and Latin America. That in turn, threatens the biodiesel mandates in Thailand and Malaysia. The Thai government has already expressed concern over palm-led food price inflation and associated pressure on its (subsidised) biodiesel programme, launching efforts to mitigate the worst effects. Malaysia – which has a more direct approach to subsidised fuels – is also feeling the pinch. Thailand’s move to B10 and Malaysia’s move to B20 is now in jeopardy; in fact, Thailand has regressed its national mandate from B7 to B5. And the reason is that the differential between the bio- and the diesel portion of the biodiesel is now so disparate that subsidy regimes break down. It would be far cheaper – for the government, the tax-payers and consumers – to use straight diesel instead of biodiesel, as evidenced by Thailand’s reversal in mandates.
That, in turn, has implications on crude pricing. While OPEC+ is stubbornly sticking to its gentle approach to managing global crude supply, the stunning rebound in Asian demand has already kept the consumption side tight to match that supply. Crude prices above US$100/b are a recipe for demand destruction, and Asian economies have been preparing for this by looking at alternatives; biofuels for example. In the past four years, Indonesia has converted some of its oil refineries into biodiesel plants; in China, stricter crude import quotas are paving the way for China to clamp down on its status of a fuels exporter in favour of self-sustainability. But what happens when crude prices are high, but the prices of alternatives are higher? That is the case for palm oil now, where the gasoil-palm spread is now triple the previous average.
Part of this situation is due to market dynamics. Part of it is due to geopolitical effects. But part of it is also due to Indonesia’s knee-jerk reaction. Supply disruption at the level of a blanket ban is always seismic and kicks off a chain of unintended consequences; see the OPEC oil shocks of the 70s. Indonesia’s palm oil export ban is almost at that level. ‘Indefinite’ is a vague term and offers no consolation to markets looking for direction. Damage will be done, even if the ban lasts a month. But the longer it lasts – Indonesian general elections are due in February 2024 – the more serious the consequences could be. And the more the oil and refining industry in Asia will have to think about their preconceived notions of the future of oil in the region.
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An online shop is a type of e-commerce website where the products are typically marketed over the internet. The online sale of goods and services is a type of electronic commerce, or "e-commerce". The construction supply online shop makes it all the more convenient for customers to get what they need when they want it. The construction supply industry is on the rise, but finding the right supplier can be difficult. This is where an online store comes in handy.
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Most construction supply companies have an online shop where customers can purchase everything they need for their project, but some still prefer to use brick-and-mortar stores instead, so it’s important to sell both in your store.
Construction supply is an essential part of any construction site too. Construction supply shops are usually limited to the geographic area where they are located. This is because, in order for construction supplies to be delivered on time, they must be close to the construction site that ordered them. But with modern technology and internet connectivity, it has become possible for people to purchase their construction supplies online and have them shipped right to their doorstep. Online stores such as Supply House offer a wide variety of products that can help you find what you need without having to drive around town looking for it.
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