A discussion of possible uncertain trends and events that will likely shape the business context of the energy sector in the future.
The energy business has historically been characterized by major capital investments and, in the upstream sector the focus is mainly on subsurface uncertainty and risk. This has led to a rich tradition of applying various methodologies for risk and uncertainty analysis.
The energy business has also always had a strong geopolitical dimension in the global market, which has led to the need for the businesses to develop a good understanding of the worldwide economic, social, regulatory and governance context. An example of this is the tradition of the Shell Scenarios which commenced in the early seventies of the previous century.
When developing scenarios for the business environment, a key step is to identify the future trends and events that are relevant for the organization in question. Some of these may be reasonably predictable, but others can be highly uncertain. Many will be global, some may be regional or local.
In this webinar Henk will cover:
• A discussion of possible uncertain trends and events that will likely shape the business context of the energy sector in the future.
Henk completed a career of 35 years with Shell. His work in Shell took him to Indonesia, Thailand, the United States and the Netherlands. During his last five years in Shell’s Corporate Strategy and Planning department he played a pivotal role in establishing new approaches for risk and scenario analysis within the company. Henk worked in the Business Environment Department, well known for the Shell Scenarios (http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energyfuture/scenarios.html). He was responsible for project evaluation assumptions that was applied across the Shell Group of companies, and as well for the methodologies for the analysis supporting investment decision making. He successfully developed new approaches for project and portfolio risk analysis, implemented company wide, and the application of the Shell scenarios for strategic decision making. He currently serves as Treasurer of the (American) Society of Decision Professionals.